How the Maple Leafs, down 2-0 to Panthers, can salvage season
The Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in a 2-0 hole despite playing fairly well through the first leg of their second-round series against the Florida Panthers. A critical Game 3 is set for Sunday in Sunrise, Florida. Here are four ways the Leafs - who must win four of the next five games - can salvage their season.
Let Nylander cook
Listen, William Nylander can be a frustrating player. He can occasionally space out on defense, missing an assignment or putting forth little effort, as he did at points in Game 1. He can make the odd head-scratching decision with the puck, too, as he did at points in Games 1 and 2. For example, he inexplicably passed on a wide-open lane to Florida's net in the second period of Game 1.
Nylander can also be an exhilarating player. The boxscore might not reflect it, but he's overwhelmed the Panthers all series, pressing the speed-boost button in the neutral zone countless times over 38 minutes of action. The smooth-skating Swede's been weaving through Florida's defensive shell, completing clean zone entries, and shooting from high-leverage scoring areas.
The results, Part 1: a series-high 13 shots on goal, and the second-highest individual expected goals generation, at 1.66, according to Natural Stat Trick.
The results, Part 2: zero points.
Sergei Bobrovsky, a .901 goalie in the regular season, has turned aside 69 of 73 Toronto shots on goal for a series-tilting .945 save percentage. The two-time Vezina Trophy winner has been nothing short of phenomenal, already saving a cool 4.28 goals above expected, per Natural Stat Trick.
On one hand, Nylander's lack of finishing is unacceptable. There are no moral victories in the playoffs, and it's not as if Nylander and his teammates are throwing everything possible at Bobrovsky. He isn't battling tricky deflections and tips, or being screened.
On the other hand, no Leafs player is feeling it right now quite like Nylander, and Sheldon Keefe knows this better than anyone. The Leafs coach must take the bad with the good and feed the explosive winger and his center, John Tavares, with offensive-zone starts. Doubling down should lead to goals.
At the top of the lineup, the Panthers have Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk to counter Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Florida's second layer of offensive pop, matching up with Nylander and Tavares, includes who? Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett? Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart? These are fun, clutch players, but none of them are as purely talented as Nylander.
That's precisely why No. 88's so crucial moving forward: He's the Leafs' edge.
Meanwhile, Tavares had a few Grade-A scoring opportunities of his own in Game 2, even hitting the post in the second period. Matthews, who struck iron in the third period of Game 1, has been buzzing all series, peppering Bobrovsky on the power play while earning a series-high 72% five-on-five expected goals rate. Marner's been his usual crafty self. All three are due.
Simplify puck plays
The Panthers have recorded 21 five-on-five goals in nine playoff games. Nine of 21, including two Thursday, have come within five seconds of a turnover.
This opportunistic brand of hockey, fueled by a surgical forecheck and cycle game, has been the series' key battleground. Similar to Nylander failing to solve Bobrovsky, the Leafs deserve plenty of blame for surrendering these chances. Yet the Panthers' nearly flawless execution can't be discounted.
Florida's such a well-connected, straight-line team that it's reasonable to expect its habit of turning nothing into something will continue. The Panthers' opening tally in Game 2 was a masterclass in how to score a "gritty" goal in the modern NHL. Each of Reinhart, Eetu Luostarinen, and Anton Lundell knew their specified duties and got to work as a unit - steal the puck, dump the puck, chase the puck, pass it, shoot it. No luck, just sustainable hockey.
The Leafs need to simplify in Game 3 and beyond, especially in transition.
If the puck's on your stick a few feet inside or outside your blue line, opt for the safer play. In that vulnerable area of the ice, manage the puck under the assumption the Panthers are ready to embarrass you. Sure, that's Hockey 101-level advice for the best of the best on the planet. It isn't anything they haven't heard. However, puck management's become a back-breaking issue.
The Leafs have averaged 15 giveaways per game this series, and defenseman Timothy Liljegren (first Panthers goal), Nylander (second goal), and both Marner and Matthews (third goal) all coughed up the puck in devastating fashion in Game 2. It's been a comedy of errors for a squad that averaged 10.5 giveaways per game in the first round and 10.3 a contest in the regular season.
Toronto had problems breaking the puck out of its own end in Game 1. While Florida is still wreaking havoc deep in Toronto's end, the Leafs were better at penetrating the Panthers' multi-layered forecheck in Game 2. Progress.
Make Panthers pay
For all the offense initiated by their functional physicality and nifty stick work, the Panthers cross the line often. We knew about this undisciplined streak ahead of Round 2, and the first two games have only solidified the reputation.
The Leafs have been granted seven power-play opportunities in two games - not bad if you hadn't watched the games, but not great if you had, given the handful of missed calls. The on-ice officials have ignored clear-cut infractions from the more aggressive team. Most glaringly, Bennett's WWE-style takedown in Game 2 injured Leafs rookie Matthew Knies but went unpenalized.
Toronto can't control what's going to be called and not called. What the Leafs can do is make Florida pay for being undisciplined. Tampa Bay shut out their power play in Games 5 and 6 of the first round; in the second round, Matthews, Marner, and the rest of the star-studded power-play contingent has generated just one goal off 12 scoring chances over 10 minutes.
Keep an eye out for Bennett in Game 3. Not because the Leafs will be looking for blood following the Knies incident, but because it feels like Bennett's been taking too many risks. He's prioritized body checks and cross-checks over winning 50/50 pucks, directing more energy toward agitating than scoring.
Will Bennett get caught up in the villain role? Will the constant agitation come back to bite him in the form of a stupid penalty and subsequent Leafs goal?
Address blue-line woes
The extra day off between Games 2 and 3 is a blessing for the Leafs. The players could use the rest and Keefe could use the lineup-pondering time.
With Knies out with a concussion, Zach Aston-Reese could return to the wing. The back end is an entirely different conundrum, with the Panthers carving Mark Giordano and Liljegren in Game 2. Giordano, 39, has looked his age as the postseason has chugged along. Liljegren, listed at 6-foot-1 and 192 pounds, has been equally bad against Florida, constantly getting outmuscled along the boards and mishandling the puck under pressure.
In Game 6 of the Lightning series, Liljegren's first game of the playoffs, he played only 10:31 because Keefe opted for an 11-forward, seven-defenseman configuration. Perhaps the bench boss forgoes reinserting Aston-Reese on Sunday and instead tries 11-and-7 again, with either Justin Holl or Erik Gustafsson occupying the seventh blue-liner spot. Holl's the better penalty killer and Gustafsson's the better puck-mover. Given the Leafs' breakout struggles, Gustafsson would be the natural choice, while there's a pros-versus-cons conversation to be had about Holl replacing Giordano or Liljegren.
The 11-and-7 would also unlock a few additional shifts for the Leafs' top guns and secondary contributors, specifically wingers Michael Bunting and Calle Jarnkrok, who skated for only 15:11 and 8:36, respectively, in Game 2.
The third pair's been a disaster. Luckily for the Leafs, Jake McCabe and T.J. Brodie, despite a few mental lapses, have held their own against Florida, and Morgan Rielly and Luke Schenn have been tremendous the entire playoff run.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).