NHL Wednesday best bets: Goaltenders to shine in Dallas

Tuesday night was another split for our best bets. The Edmonton Oilers picked up a relatively sweat-free regulation win over the Detroit Red Wings, but the Colorado Avalanche blew their lead late in Pittsburgh and could not get the job done in overtime.

Let's take a closer look at three plays that stand out for Wednesday's pint-sized slate.

Wild (+115) @ Stars (-135)

Going with the under on a low total (5.5) is a scary proposition when snipers like Kirill Kaprizov and Jason Robertson are featured in a game ... but that's just what we're going to do!

These teams are all about defense. No side has been better at limiting high-danger chances at five-on-five this season than the Minnesota Wild. That's right - not even the Boston Bruins or Carolina Hurricanes have prevented quality scoring opportunities more efficiently.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars have flipped the switch lately, ranking first in high-danger chances against per 60 over the last 10 games. The Stars are giving up nothing right now.

Strong chance suppression alone isn't enough to get me on the under when guys like Kaprizov and Robertson can simply take advantage of any opportunities that come their way. I also need goaltending, which this game should have in spades

Filip Gustavsson has been one of the league's biggest surprises between the pipes, owning a .922 save percentage in a season where the league average sits at .901.

As good as those numbers are, his goals saved above expected mark looks even better. Only Linus Ullmark, Ilya Sorokin, and Juuse Saros rank ahead of Gustavsson on a per-game basis.

Gustavsson's expected counterpart Jake Oettinger is sitting right there with him. Oettinger's save percentage ranks a little higher at .925, but he lags just behind in GSAE.

But both goaltenders have been extremely good, no matter the metric you look at. With Gustavsson playing behind one of the NHL's best five-on-five defenses this season and Oettinger backing one of the league's best five-on-five defenses of late, goals should come at a premium in this one.

Bet: Under 5.5 (+100)

Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-120)

Robertson is about as good as it gets on home soil. He has piled up 115 shots in Dallas this season, which is more than all but David Pastrnak and Timo Meier have amassed in their own buildings.

Robertson has averaged 4.6 shots per game in Dallas and hit the over on his shot total a whopping 68% of the time. That's a big step up from his numbers on the road, where he finds success only 44% of the time.

While the Wild are a strong defensive team, they have a couple weaknesses that play into Robertson's hands.

Chief among them is their inability to stay out of the box. Only six teams have spent more time shorthanded on a per-game basis. If we isolate the last 10 games for a better idea of the current picture, that list shrinks to three.

Minnesota tends to take more than its fair share of penalties, and Robertson will benefit from that the most - his bread and butter is hammering pucks on the power play.

It's also worth noting Robertson has generated at least five shots on goal and eight attempts in four straight meetings against the Wild.

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-120)

We're double dipping with the Stars and backing Miro Heiskanen as well. Heiskanen is a favorite go-to defender because he often doesn't even need to be efficient to get the job done - he logs more than 25 minutes per night.

Like Robertson, Heiskanen has been a completely different animal on home ice. The smooth-skating rearguard has generated three shots or more 70% of the time at the American Airlines Center.

The Wild's defensive prowess hasn't slowed Heiskanen down in recent games, as he's gone over his shot total in four of the last five against Minnesota.

In a clash between the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds in the Central Division, Heiskanen should get all the ice he can handle in a game of such importance - especially considering he has only had to suit up once since January 27th. He should be well-rested and ready to go.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.