NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for every game

The All-Star break is in the rearview and we've turned it up a notch, going to twice per week for the NHL betting guide so that we can be as accurate as possible in evaluating each team, especially with significant players in and out of the lineup. A quick price comparison from Monday to Thursday would have produced nine bets in total. With 20/20 hindsight, here's how that looked.

That there was a mix of favorites and underdogs - both short and long - is an even better sign than the small sample size of a 7-2 (+7.7 units) stretch. Finding value at various prices - and in some cases, both for and against teams like the Golden Knights - can indicate we're doing well to not overreact to the ebbs and flows of the betting market.

With our new biweekly schedule, we can react to things like injuries to Aleksander Barkov and Cale Makar early in the week, the market's game-to-game adjustment to the Maple Leafs without Auston Matthews against good teams like the Bruins before their break and a home-and-home with the likes of the Blue Jackets after it, and the Canucks' and Islanders' value after the Bo Horvat trade.

Much to Devils fans' chagrin, we get our first guess as to how the betting market will react to Jack Hughes' absence. We'll start with an assumption that New Jersey is 5% less likely to win an individual game without Hughes, who sits third in the NHL in goals. Meanwhile, we'll take a wait-and-see approach on any boost the Rangers get after their addition of Vladimir Tarasenko.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.