NHL weekday betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Mic'd-up at the All-Star Game, Bo Horvat and Elias Pettersson told each other they'd get one more goal together, essentially the NHL's version of "for old times' sake." They clicked for one of many goals in the mini-tournament before going their separate ways, with Horvat off to make his debut for the Islanders following his trade from the Canucks.

Hockey bettors couldn't care less about the former teammates' last hurrah, though. Our time is better spent trying to figure out how much Horvat - a 30-goal scorer prior to the break - will improve the Islanders' win probability on a game-to-game basis. In turn, how much will the Canucks' win probability change with a largely replacement-level player in Anthony Beauvillier?

Looking at closing lines for the Canucks' four games last week, the betting market seems to have decided that they're 5% less probable to win an average game post-Horvat. They were +210 in New Jersey in the first game after the break, which would've been close to a 4% edge for the Canucks if they still had Horvat. Dropping their implied win probability by 5% pushed both the Canucks' and Devils' moneylines into a dead-even no man's land of negligible value.

That Canucks downgrade continued over the week, and, ironically, the only game they won was a wild 6-5 game at the Islanders. New York's rating hasn't changed all that much - maybe plus-2% - showing that when it comes to trades involving one key player, the team losing that player is perceived to be hurt worse than his new team is improved.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.