NHL Monday player props: Kaprizov to heat up at home

We ended last week on a high, falling one Vladimir Tarasenko shot short of a 3-0 night on Friday night.

Still, a 2-1 effort saw us take home a profit. We'll aim for the same - or more - with three more props for Monday's slate of games.

Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots (-130)

Kirill Kaprizov has really cooled off lately. He has failed to hit the over in seven of his last 10 overall and three of four on home ice, where he's normally close to automatic.

Is this a worrisome trend or simply variance over the course of a long season? The data suggests the latter.

Take Kaprizov's recent numbers at home, for example. He missed the net on a whopping 14 attempts over the last three dates in Minnesota despite attempting more than enough shots to continue his home success - it just didn't happen.

So long as the attempts are there, I'll continue to back Kaprizov, and that shouldn't be a problem against the Panthers. Florida plays a very high-event style of hockey and has allowed 35.63 shots per game over the last 10, which is more than every team but Anaheim and Arizona.

This is a great spot for Kaprizov to get back on track.

Dylan Larkin under 3.5 shots (-130)

Larkin has stepped up his shooting game of late, going over his shot total in six of the last nine games and seeing the line bumped from 2.5 to 3.5 as a result.

Zooming out, I think this is a nice spot to go the other way and back the under. Larkin has averaged 3.2 shots on 5.8 attempts this season, going over a 3.5 shot total just 36% of the time. His success percentage drops to 32% if we isolate road games.

In a vacuum, a 3.5 shot total is high for Larkin against pretty much any opponent. The Canucks are not a good team - at all - but their struggles of late have more to do with putrid goaltending than anything else.

Vancouver has quietly been quite stout at suppressing shots and chances under its new bench boss. Believe it or not, only the Hurricanes have done a better job at limiting shots since Rick Tocchet took over.

The Canucks are playing a more stingy, low-event brand of hockey, and that's sucking the life out of a lot of games.

Larkin hit against Vancouver the last time out, but first of all, he was at home, and second off, hit the target on 71% of his attempts - well above his season average of 55%.

With the Canucks' ability to match up better and the Red Wings' other top weapons at home, Larkin shouldn't be able to generate shots in bulk.

J.T. Miller over 2.5 shots (-130)

J.T. Miller - much like many offensive players - fares much better at home. He has gone over his shot total in 63% of games in Vancouver this season, a far cry from his 45% success rate on the road.

Miller has been especially efficient lately, coming through in nine of his past 10 home games, including both under Rick Tocchet. Miller combined for 12 shots in those two affairs, soaring past his total with plenty of room to spare.

The Red Wings don't take a lot of penalties - they won't spoon-feed Miller power-play opportunities - but they are a bad five-on-five team that allows the opposing side to spend a lot of time on the front foot.

Considering Miller will get softer matchups and plenty of offensive zone starts, he'll be ready to take advantage of that.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.