NHL weekend betting guide: True moneylines for every game

Panic struck Wednesday afternoon. The Blackhawks - second-last in the league-wide standings - showed up in our venerable guide as valuable at a price of +460 on the road against the Maple Leafs.

In our last edition of the NHL betting guide, we drew a line of value for Chicago at +317 - a 24% implied win probability similar to its 6-17 moneyline record on the road - for a game three nights after publication.

Of course, we didn't know on Monday that Auston Matthews - one of a handful of players who'll significantly shift a game market - would be making his return. In fact, neither did the betting market - Toronto opened the Blackhawks as high as +375 underdogs Tuesday night. Once the Maple Leafs confirmed Matthews's availability, the market reacted aggressively, pushing them up over -600, while the Blackhawks went up through +450.

"Am I going to have to bet the Blackhawks?!" was an appropriate, terror-filled question.

In Monday's guide, we hadn't adjusted the Leafs' win probability up 10% - for Matthews' return along with the Hawks playing on a back-to-back with travel - so once that was the case, the odds moved from +317 (24% IWP) to +610 (14%).

Strict guide followers could be let off the hook, even if the idea of any hockey team - let alone one that just lost at home to the Blue Jackets and isn't in first place in its own division - should be a -600 favorite.

There are two big takeaways from this game example. First: You should never be forced to do anything when it comes to betting. Our advantage is that we can be picky. If you don't want to bet the Blackhawks, regardless of price, you don't have to. Second: If a line doesn't look right, maybe there's a reason - like the return of a superstar.

Of course, the Leafs manhandled the Blackhawks that night with advantages of 78% in even-strength high-danger chances and more than 70% of the expected goals at five-on-five, confirming that an 80% win probability wasn't far off. They'll meet again Sunday, and the Leafs will be at the disadvantage of playing the second game of a back-to-back. How much the market will care about that tough schedule spot will decide whether bettors have another tough decision to make.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.