NHL Thursday best bets: Flyers to best Blackhawks

We have our final big slate of the regular season on the docket tonight. Let's get to the best ways to attack it.

Flyers (-120) @ Blackhawks (+100)

The Flyers are a bad hockey team, but they're not Blackhawks bad. They also have nothing riding on this result, while the Blackhawks need to lose.

If things break their way, a loss could have the Blackhawks in last by the end of the night. A win, however, could put them as high as 29th. Such a swing – perhaps not likely, but possible – is the difference between a 25.5% chance at Connor Bedard or a 9.5% chance. That's an extreme gap.

Although the Blackhawks have been able to grind out the occasional surprise victory, they are mind-numbingly bad. They've won seven of their past 25 games and controlled only 40% of the high-danger opportunities in that span. They've also lost by multiple goals in 12 straight defeats. When they lose, they lose big - and they lose often.

For all their faults, the Flyers have more depth, a much better underlying process (they own a 47% share of high-danger chances over the last 25), and a big edge in goal with Carter Hart.

The Flyers also have a bench boss in John Tortorella who never takes his foot off the gas and will be pushing to win as if the world is at stake. This line gives a little too much respect to a terrible Blackhawks team that has everything to lose by, uh, winning.

Bet: Flyers (-120)

Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-120)

Last game, Hughes broke the franchise record for most points in a single season. With the Devils still playing for first place in the division, and Hughes within striking distance of a 100-point campaign (he's at 97), I expect to see a motivated effort.

Normally a high-end shot generator, Hughes attempted only two shots against the Sabres, and one came with an empty cage. He created chance after chance for his teammates, none of which were converted. I think he's going to take matters into his own hands and generate the kind of shot volume we're accustomed to seeing.

Hughes has gone over his shot total at a 62% clip this season. If all else was equal, that would indicate -163 is a fair price based on 77 games of hockey.

A matchup with the Capitals isn't an average matchup, though - at this point, it's better. They have won only seven of the past 25 games and allowed more shots per minute than all but six teams in that span. They're really laboring defensively.

Look for Hughes to take advantage.

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-132)

The Panthers must win their season finale in order to surpass the Islanders and claim the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. That means they'll be playing for keeps and relying heavily on their captain.

Barkov is sizzling hot at shooting the puck on home ice. He registered three shots or more in eight of the last 10 and 14 of the past 16 games at home, and he's done it in 23 of 34 games on the season. Those are very good hit rates.

While the Hurricanes are generally not a team I want to target for shots, Barkov is worth making an exception. He plays a ton of minutes, his numbers at home are rock-solid, and he actually has a great track record against the Hurricanes.

Dating back to 2021, Barkov has gone over this number in 10 of 12 meetings with Carolina. He's willing to work to get inside the dots, which is how you have to grind out offense against the Hurricanes.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.