Skip to content

NHL weekend betting guide: Introducing the 4% Club

Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images Sport / Getty

January and February in the NHL is a grind. Fresh legs are a thing of the past, and the urgency of a playoff push is still to come. The last few weeks have seen star players in and out of lineups. Cale Makar, Auston Matthews, Bo Horvat, Jack Hughes, Filip Forsberg, Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly, and Alex Ovechkin have all been removed from lineups for various reasons and, in some cases, added to others. That's required a quick shift in team valuations each gameday.

One of the most difficult elements for both novice and veteran bettors is trying to understand how much one player matters to his team's probability of winning an individual game.

Connor McDavid is headed for his third Hart Trophy - he's quite literally the league's most valuable player. He hasn't missed a game this season, so we don't have an up-to-date look at how moneylines shift in his absence and, in turn, how the Oilers' rating and win probability changes.

Using moneyline adjustments for when other stars have missed games as a starting point, and using on-ice metrics to determine how valuable a player is to their team's implied win probability (IWP), here's the list of the league's most valuable skaters.

PLAYER TEAM IWP DIFF.
Connor McDavid EDM 10%
Cale Makar COL 8%
Rasmus Dahlin BUF 7%
David Pastrnak BOS  
Aaron Ekblad FLA 6%
Roman Josi NSH
Adam Fox NYR
Thomas Chabot OTT  
Sidney Crosby PIT  
Erik Karlsson SJS
Victor Hedman TBL
Jacob Chychrun ARI 5%
Nathan MacKinnon COL
Tyson Barrie EDM  
Leon Draisaitl EDM
Zach Hyman EDM
Kirill Kaprizov MIN  
Dougie Hamilton NJD  
Jack Hughes NJD  
Brady Tkachuk OTT  
Nikita Kucherov TBL  
Josh Morrissey WPG  
Alex Ovechkin WSH  
Auston Matthews TOR  
John Tavares TOR  
Quinn Hughes VAN  
Elias Pettersson VAN  
Tage Thompson BUF 4%
Sebastian Aho CAR
Brent Burns CAR  
Rasmus Andersson CGY
Seth Jones CHI
Devon Toews COL
Miro Heiskanen DAL
Jason Robertson DAL  
Dylan Larkin DET  
Matthew Tkachuk FLA  
Brandon Montour FLA  
Drew Doughty LAK  
Bo Horvat NYI
Chris Kreider NYR  
Jake Guentzel PIT  
Kris Letang PIT  
Vince Dunn SEA  
Steven Stamkos TBL  
Brayden Point TBL  
Mitch Marner TOR  
Alex Pietrangelo VGK  
Shea Theodore VGK  
Mark Scheifele WPG  
Kyle Connor WPG  
John Carlson WSH  

A lot of good players fall into the wider section of a bell curve, but the "4% Club" is reserved for players that drive goals for their team while also helping prevent them. Many players not on this list are hurt by being on teams that are too good - their absence for one game doesn't make as much of an impact as it would if they played for a weaker club - and in some other cases by being on teams that are so bad their presence can't make enough of a difference.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

DATE GAME TRUE ML PRICE TO BET
Feb. 24 BUF@FLA +208/-208 BUF +251/FLA -199
OTT@CAR +220/-220 OTT +267/CAR -210
MTL@PHI +142/-142 MTL +168/PHI -137
MIN@TOR +221/-221 MIN +269/TOR -211
LAK@NYI +112/-112 LAK +132/NYI -108
COL@WPG +130/-130 COL +153/WPG -125
Feb. 25 EDM@CBJ -160/+160 EDM -154/CBJ +191
NYR@WSH +103/-103 NYR +114/WSH +107
PIT@STL -125/+125 PIT -120/STL +147
BOS@VAN -187/+187 BOS -179/VAN +225
ANA@CAR +529/-529 ANA +741/CAR -492
OTT@MTL -124/+124 OTT -119/MTL +146
PHI@NJD +213/-213 PHI +257/NJD -203
TBL@DET -166/+166 TBL -160/DET +198
DAL@VGK +112/-112 DAL +131/VGK -107
CGY@COL -143/+143 CGY -138/COL +170
CHI@SJS +214/-214 CHI +259/SJS -205
Feb. 26 WSH@BUF -105/+105 WSH +105/BUF +116
CBJ@MIN +237/-237 CBJ +289/MIN -226
NYI@WPG +132/-132 NYI +156/WPG -127
LAK@NYR +111/-111 LAK +130/NYR -106
TBL@PIT -127/+127 TBL -122/PIT +150
NSH@ARI -119/+119 NSH -114/ARI +140
TOR@SEA -149/+149 TOR -143/SEA +177

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox