Vezina Trophy Rankings: How can Ullmark lose at this point?

Welcome to the fifth in-season edition of theScore's 2022-23 Vezina Trophy rankings. On this month's list, we have a pair of fringe contenders who have struggled of late, one newcomer, and a familiar favorite who can seemingly cruise to the finish line at this point.

GSAA = Goals saved above average
GSAx = Goals saved above expected

5. Filip Gustavsson, Wild

Previous rank: N/A

Gustavsson is one of the league's hottest goalies and has played considerably better than any other fringe Vezina contender of late, hence his perhaps surprising inclusion on our list. He doesn't have the sample size to warrant serious consideration at this point, but keep an eye on the Wild's new No. 1, who's taken the starting gig from Marc-Andre Fleury and might work his way up our rankings if he maintains this form down the stretch and guides Minnesota into the playoffs.

Since our last edition Feb. 8, Gustavsson owns a .956 clip in 11 appearances and only has one regulation loss. He's also skyrocketed up the leaderboard in GSAA and GSAx for the season, currently ranking top five in both categories. The Wild appeared to be on the losing end of the offseason deal that brought Gustavsson in and sent Cam Talbot out, but Minnesota may have found its goaltender of the future for pennies on the dollar.

4. Jake Oettinger, Stars

Previous rank: 4th

We've mentioned several times throughout the year that Oettinger has the ability to play his way into the top three, but an underwhelming stretch between the pipes kept him in our fourth spot for the time being. The 24-year-old lost five of nine starts this past month and saw his numbers drop across the board. Oettinger is still among league leaders in said stats but has lost a step in the race for hardware. Perhaps the biggest workload of his young career has begun to take its toll deep into the season, but Stars fans shouldn't be too worried about their No. 1 rediscovering his form in time for the playoffs.

3. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets

Previous rank: 3rd

Hellebuyck and Oettinger have been virtually intertwined in our rankings all season, and this past month reinforced their similarities perhaps more than ever as the two Central Division stalwarts both struggled. The Jets netminder was particularly - and uncharacteristically - poor, registering an .898 save percentage in eight starts and a miserable minus-7.05 GSAA. It's no surprise Winnipeg has struggled to string together wins of late.

While Hellebuyck's recent stretch has been worse than Oettinger's, the former remains ahead on our list by a hair due to greater cumulative numbers on the season. The analytics lean slightly in Hellebuyck's favor, and he routinely faces more shots and difficult chances. Neither goalie is likely to win the Vezina at this point due to the strength of our top two contenders, but the third spot is wide open with just over a month to go in the regular season.

2. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders

Previous rank: 2nd

Sorokin simply doesn't believe in inconsistency, but unfortunately for him in his quest for goaltender of the year, he backstops a team fighting for a playoff berth and is up against one of the most ironclad cases to win in recent memory. We're not taking anything away from Sorokin's outstanding season - he deserves credit for thriving in a difficult situation and has unquestionably made a name for himself as one of the best goalies in the world.

There's a case to be made that Sorokin has been better than Boston's Linus Ullmark this season, but this award is voted on by NHL general managers, who generally lean on the side of traditional statistics rather than analytics. Still, it's worth noting Sorokin leads the league in GSAx by 13 and has faced 50 extra expected goals than Ullmark on the year due to New York's inferior defensive structure. As good as Sorokin's been, though, sometimes the right choice is simply too obvious.

1. Linus Ullmark, Bruins

Previous rank: 1st

After Ullmark narrowly missed an empty-net tally at the Winter Classic in January, we wrote that he'd have won the Vezina unanimously if he scored. Well, the Bruins netminder has lost only three contests since his attempt at Fenway Park and added an entry into the goal column to boot. We don't see any way Ullmark doesn't win the award at this point.

He paces his peers in nearly every statistical category, and if the campaign ended today, his .938 save percentage would be the fifth-highest single-season mark in NHL history for a goaltender to play at least 25 games. His goals against average would be 15th. Some may use playing for the juggernaut Bruins as a knock on the Swedish netminder, but he has shown no flaws in his game whatsoever this season and has the individual stats to prove he's impactful as any player on the Presidents' Trophy favorites.