Calder Trophy Rankings: Just give the thing to Beniers, already

There aren't a whole lot of games left for this season's rookie class to cement a case for the Calder Trophy.

To be real, the award pretty much already has Matty Beniers' name on it. But have no fear: We've tried to keep our rankings fair yet fresh by bringing back Jake Sanderson and replacing the injured Logan Thompson with Stuart Skinner.

Let's get into it.

5. Stuart Skinner, Oilers

We've been beating the Thompson drum as our Calder-eligible goaltender, but he's been out since Feb. 9 due to injury. So, we'll use this opportunity to give Skinner his time in the sun.

In terms of rookies who've provided the most value to their respective teams, Skinner is right up there with the best of them. Jack Campbell basically gave the starting job away thanks to his .882 save percentage across 32 appearances, but luckily for the Edmonton Oilers, Skinner has been up to the task.

Thompson has a slight edge over Skinner when it comes to save percentage and goals against average, but Skinner leads all rookie goalies in goals saved above expected (12.61), goals above replacement (16.1), and wins above replacement (2.7). In addition, out of all netminders who've made at least 10 starts this season, Skinner is tied for seventh with a .925 save percentage at even strength.

An important caveat: This doesn't mean that we no longer think Thompson should be in the running. It's difficult to give a spot on these rankings to someone who isn't playing. However, the Vegas Golden Knights goalie will likely be named a Calder finalist given his dominance during the first couple months of the campaign - unless the No. 4 player on this list takes over. We just figured it was time we acknowledged Skinner for the work he's put in this season.

4. Mason McTavish, Ducks

Of course we had to give some flowers to the only player with a realistic chance to challenge Beniers for the rookie points lead. McTavish has some ground to cover - he's currently nine points away from taking the crown - but it makes sense that the Ducks forward is in the mix for the hardware.

After a quiet start to the season, McTavish has picked it up during the winter. The 20-year-old has rattled off eight goals and nine assists in 25 games since the calendar flipped to 2023, producing at a 0.68 point-per-game clip. Prior to that, he was puttering away at a 0.54 rate.

McTavish has even enjoyed some time as Anaheim's top-line center. Yes, all of his key possession stats at five-on-five are below 50%. But the Ducks are horrendous. They're toiling in the league's basement with a shocking minus-96 goal differential and are far more interested in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes than being competitive - no matter what NHL commissioner Gary Bettman says.

Expecting McTavish to have dazzling results under those conditions as a rookie would be unfair, to say the least.

3. Jake Sanderson, Senators

It's been a minute since Sanderson has made an appearance on these rankings, but he's been just as steady as ever.

He's the second-busiest defenseman on the Senators behind only - you guessed it - Thomas Chabot. Sanderson is one of three rookies averaging over 20 minutes of ice time per contest, and he also sees the most amount of shorthanded playing time among all first-year players by almost one full minute (3:14 TOI/GP).

The 20-year-old has rewarded that trust from his coaching staff. The team controls the majority of the shot attempts (52.4%), expected goals (51.3%), scoring chances (54%), and high-danger chances (55.4%) with him on the ice at five-on-five. What's more, Sanderson ranks fifth among Senators skaters in both WAR (1.1) and GAR (6.8), trailing only Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, and Chabot.

Sanderson tops all rookies with a whopping 98 blocks, and he ranks second among first-year rearguards in points while starting just 44.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone. In comparison, Owen Power, the only other defenseman on this list, has started 57.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Expectations were high for Sanderson heading into this season, but the 2020 fifth overall pick has shouldered that hype admirably, which is a welcome sight for a team that has a tendency to ride its top defensemen.

2. Owen Power, Sabres

Power is continuing his workhorse ways.

The Sabres blue-liner currently ranks third in points by a rookie defenseman, 11 of which (including all four of his goals) have come over his 28 games in 2023. He also leads all rookies in offensive goals above replacement (9.7). On the back end, he still paces all first-year players in average ice time by almost three full minutes.

Behind Rasmus Dahlin, Power has arguably been Buffalo's most valuable defenseman this season, and he's only 20 years old. He sees the second-most ice time on the team, and he's posted some respectable underlying metrics at five-on-five. Power's shot attempts for percentage (53.2%), goals for percentage (57.5%), and scoring chances for percentage (52.6%) are all the second highest among all Sabres defensemen to log at least 200 minutes, trailing only Dahlin.

Also, when Dahlin missed three games due to injury in late February, Power saw his average ice time jump to 27 minutes. Though the Sabres went 1-2-0 in the star's absence, Power showed promise while shouldering the larger workload: Buffalo owned 54.6% of the shot attempts, 56.9% of the scoring chances, and 51.4% of the shots with Power on the ice at five-on-five during that Dahlin-less span.

The Sabres' future on the blue line is bright, indeed.

1. Matty Beniers, Kraken

It appears that Beniers all but has the Calder Trophy locked up, and for good reason.

He still tops all rookies in goals and points and is just one tally away from reaching the 20-goal mark. Beniers also has 36 even-strength points, 11 clear of Winnipeg Jets youngster Cole Perfetti in second place. He's well on his way to eclipsing 50 points, which is promising for his case: The last seven winners of the award hit that marker in their rookie year. The Massachusetts product also has a knack for scoring in key moments. He ranks second among all first-year players with three game-winning goals this season.

Beniers has earned the confidence of the Kraken coaches as a solid 200-foot player already in his budding career. The 20-year-old has started 90 shifts in the defensive zone, the fifth most among all Kraken forwards this campaign, and he's allowed fewer expected goals against per 60 than all but four of his teammates. Speaking of his teammates, Beniers ranks third on the squad in GAR (11.6) and WAR (1.9) while sitting fourth in defensive goals above replacement (2.5).

The 2021 second overall pick is a huge reason Seattle is on its way to making the playoffs one year after finishing dead last by a 16-point margin in the Pacific Division during its inaugural season.

Like we said before, Beniers pretty much has this one in the bag, but we'd love to see a dominant run down the stretch from him to really drive the point home.

Honorable mentions: Matias Maccelli (ARI), Jack Quinn (BUF), Kent Johnson (CBJ), Wyatt Johnston (DAL), Jonatan Berggren (DET), Calen Addison (MIN), Noah Cates (PHI), Cole Perfetti (WPG), Logan Thompson (VGK)

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)