NHL Monday best bets: Stars to shine in Seattle

We have a pint-sized three-game slate to begin the week. Although there isn't much to choose from on the betting board, a couple of plays still pop off the page.

Let's take a closer look.

Stars (-125) @ Kraken (+105)

The Stars bested the Kraken last time out in an airtight affair. Despite the scoreline, neither team was able to generate much offensively, especially Seattle.

The Kraken only mustered four high-danger chances in more than 63 minutes of action. With a goaltender like Jake Oettinger between the pipes, the Stars will always be in great shape when they limit teams that much.

I expect the Stars to prevail once again in the second leg of a two-game set in Seattle. First and foremost, they're the better team in better form. At five-on-five, Dallas has controlled well over 57% of the expected goals share over the last 10 games. That's a top-five clip in the NHL. Seattle slots far below the Stars in that regard, coming in around 48% (19th) during the same span.

With the Stars getting the better chances on a nightly basis, the best way to unseat them is by winning the goaltending battle. I don't love the Kraken's odds of doing that.

Philipp Grubauer has slowed down of late, allowing nine goals over the past two games. He has started every game in March, so it's possible fatigue is getting to him a bit. He's likely in for another tough night against Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, et al.

And if Martin Jones gets the nod? That's even better for the Stars' chances. Among 56 netminders to log 400-plus minutes in 2023, Jones ranks 47th with an .892 save percentage. He is really struggling and unlikely to give the Kraken the quality start they'll need - particularly after a couple weeks of idling.

Look for the Stars to grab another win and take all four points in their visit to Seattle.

Bet: Stars (-125)

Mikko Rantanen over 0.5 assists (+110)

The Avalanche are slowly starting to look like the team we've grown accustomed to seeing. Although they still show some flaws without the puck, they're as dangerous as ever with it.

They've scored an average of 3.85 goals per 60 over the past 10, which is more than all but the Oilers and Stars. They're consistently filling the net.

More goals equates to more points opportunities, and there should be plenty on Monday with Colorado taking on a bruised and battered Canadiens team.

The Canadiens - missing seemingly half their roster - have conceded at least three goals in six straight games and allowed 33 shots or more five times in that span. They're giving up a lot.

With the Avalanche in need of every point they can get, I expect they'll ride the big guns for 20-plus minutes again in this game. The only way they won't is if this turns into a blowout, which probably bodes well for Rantanen's chances of getting in on the action.

Rantanen's registered an assist in seven of his last eight games against bottom-10 scoring defenses. I'm happy backing him to do it again at plus money.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.