Rangers-Devils series preview: Betting by the numbers

Depending on your age, certain Stanley Cup Playoffs matchups can take you back to more carefree times. From 1992-97, the Rangers and Devils portaged the Hudson River in meeting three times in six postseasons. New York took them all and picked up its lone Stanley Cup since 1940 along the way. The Rangers vexed the Devils thanks to their snipers up front, a Vezina-caliber defenseman, and one of the best goaltenders in the world. New York will try that same recipe in its first postseason clash with New Jersey in over a decade.

Series odds

You won't find a series lined closer to a coin flip than this one. Of course, we should be somewhat skeptical anytime anything is suggested to be 50-50 in probability - especially with these two teams, who do things decidedly differently.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

Not to combine church and state here, but the best bettors believe in something. No matter the sport, they have a personal view of which elements are predictable and reliable to consistently win games. The Devils do what I believe in. The Rangers don't.

Advanced metrics at even-strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

At even strength over the course of the entire season - featuring competition a lot worse than the Devils - the Rangers allowed more expected goals and high-danger chances than they created. That's not a trait of a good team unless you have particularly awesome players. With Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, and midseason additions Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane, the Rangers may be fine with trusting their shooters to maintain an above-average conversion rate.

The Devils regularly dominate five-on-five play. Like most teams, the idea is that if you're getting more chances than your opponent, you're more likely to score - and therefore more likely to win. It's not rocket science. Of course, if the Devils get that chance majority, they'll still have to score on Igor Shesterkin - a goaltender who provides the Rangers comfort when they get outchanced.

Goaltending matchup

Shesterkin followed up his Vezina season with a year that will probably have him in the top five of voting, even if he wasn't able to match his 0.73 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes from 2021-22. After that season, he carried the Rangers to the Eastern Conference Final by stopping an outrageous 1.17 more goals per 60 minutes than an average goaltender would.

The Devils added Vitek Vanecek in the offseason in the hopes of stabilizing their goaltending issues. It hasn't been that simple for New Jersey, but even average goaltending has been enough to backstop a nearly 50-point improvement.

Special teams

For all the Rangers' ability to convert their best chances at a high rate during even-strength play, you'd think their power play would be better than seventh in the NHL. Both teams take penalties at a low rate, so the man advantage is unlikely to be the difference in the series.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

As much as we can adjust for the Rangers' unusual ability to win despite playing at a high-danger chance deficit, no amount of compensating can stave off the thought that the Devils should be heavier favorites. With the minimum amount of travel for two teams that had better road records than at home, I've downgraded the probability swing for home-ice advantage from 4% to 2%.

Best bet

What do you believe in? Even if it's high-end talent making up for an inability to drive play at even a 50% rate, you'd hope to get better than around even money on a Rangers bet.

At such a short price and with the Devils looking like they could get 10 out of every 16 high-danger chances, it's impossible not to side with New Jersey in various ways. Any bet on the Devils has theoretical value - even if they end in frustration when Shesterkin turns them aside and the Rangers' snipers score on the few chances they get.

Game 1: Devils moneyline (-135 or better)
Series: Devils to win (-120)
Series: Devils -1.5 games (+150 or better)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.