Islanders-Hurricanes series preview: Betting by the numbers
With Sidney Crosby and the Penguins' playoff streak snapped, the team that no one has any fun playing - the Islanders - laid claim to the final Stanley Cup Playoffs spot. Their reward? A best-of-seven series with the top-rated team in terms of expected goals at even strength. Of course, the Hurricanes won't be thrilled about needing to overcome Ilya Sorokin to convert those to actual goals, especially with how they finished the season offensively.
Series odds
| TEAM | GAME 1 | SERIES | SERIES HANDICAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders | +150 | +170 | +1.5 (-125) |
| Hurricanes | -175 | -200 | -1.5 (+100) |
This is the second-biggest favorite that this iteration of the Hurricanes has been, as they were well into the -200s before a first-round series with the Predators two years ago. They shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Islanders, who routinely find themselves as the underdog this time of year.
Ratings
Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.
| TEAM | SEASON | POST-ASB |
|---|---|---|
| Islanders | +1% | +3% |
| Hurricanes | +30% | +20% |
Yes, you read that correctly. The Hurricanes came out of this season as the top-ranked team in my rating system, even though their comparative statistics slowed down from their unsustainable levels early in the season.
Advanced metrics at even strength
XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate
| TEAM | XG% | HDC% | HDCV% | OPP. HDCV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders | 48.8 | 50.1 | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| Hurricanes | 58.5 | 58.0 | 10.9 | 11.5 |
*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%
If the idea is to accrue as many high-quality scoring chances as possible without allowing those same chances to opponents, Carolina is doing something right. Only the Devils had more high-danger scoring chances than the Hurricanes, and no one allowed fewer. They'll need that disparity against a goaltender who stopped high-danger chances at an impressively high rate.
Goaltending matchup
| PLAYER | GSAx/60 MIN. |
|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | 0.86 |
| Frederik Andersen | 0.08 |
| Antti Raanta | 0.21 |
The Isles know who they're rolling with - the goaltender with the highest goals saved above expected and the third-best save percentage in the NHL. As Sorokin looks to conduct his latest symphony, who the Hurricanes turn to for Game 1 is something of a state secret. Rod Brind'Amour says it's either Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta, but he hasn't made the call yet. It's not the disparity that we see in the Wild-Stars series, and ironically, their best goaltender statistically was third-choice Pyotr Kochetkov (plus-10.07 GSAx).
Special teams
| TEAM | PP% | PK% | PP+PK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders | 15.8 | 82.2 | 98.0 |
| Hurricanes | 19.8 | 84.4 | 104.2 |
The Islanders fell short of hitting a standard goal to have their special teams' efficiency add up to over 100. Their power play isn't going to make up any ground for the odd goal that Sorokin gives up. Meanwhile, the Canes shouldn't expect to get many chances for their mediocre man advantage, either, as the Isles gave up the second-fewest power-play opportunities this season.
Moneyline betting guide
If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.
Price to bet
| TEAM | NEUT. WIN PROB | GM 1/2/5/7 | GM 3/4/6 | SERIES PTB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islanders | 36.5 | +277 | +160 | +491 |
| Hurricanes | 63.5 | -217 | -130 | -356 |
The Hurricanes often showed up as valuable in the latter half of the season because the model had a hard time catching up to what Carolina is without Andrei Svechnikov. The Canes' star scorer went down with a torn ACL on March 11. We said when it happened that we'd revisit the Hurricanes after we saw what they look like without him.
Best bets
Let's take a look at the findings for the version of the Hurricanes we're likely to see this postseason. Since March 11, Carolina still managed a good expected goal share at 57.2% and 55.3% of the high-danger chances during even-strength play. However, of their 220 HDCs since Svechnikov's injury, they've only scored on 20 of them - a miserable 9.1% rate. That's considerably worse than their 11.4% rate from when Svechnikov was healthy.
Take that 9% rate and apply it against Sorokin's ability to frustrate even highly efficient scorers, and any bet on the Hurricanes in this series will likely result in viewer frustration as chances pile up but the scoreboard remains unchanged.
Low-scoring games mean the series may feature multiple overtimes and games that swing on a few timely goals. So why not take a shot at some plus-money series results?
Just because the games are close, doesn't mean each team has to win equally. Maybe one team wins the close games, and this series ends earlier than expected. If the Islanders get those goals and the Hurricanes never find the right goaltender in the right game, some bigger payouts are in play.
Game 1: Under 5.5 (-130)
Series: Under 5.5 games (+140)
Series: Islanders -1.5 games (+310)
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.