NHL Friday best bets: Sabres to finish on high note
Thursday night was a great one on the ice. We successfully backed the Flyers to top the Blackhawks in Chicago, while Aleksander Barkov and Jack Hughes both hit their player props.
We'll aim to build on that success with three plays for the last slate of the regular season.
Sabres (-165) @ Blue Jackets (+140)
On the surface, this game holds little meaning. That changes when you dig a little deeper.
From the Sabres' perspective, a 7-2-1 run down the stretch has given them the opportunity to post their highest point total since 2010-11. They can accomplish that - and finish just one point out of a playoff spot - with a win over Columbus.
For the Blue Jackets, this contest holds a lot of weight in the Connor Bedard race. Another win would see them jump from 32nd to 29th in the span of 24 hours.
A loss of any kind would slot them 31st in the NHL, giving them a 13.5% chance of landing a generational talent. That's certainly preferable to odds in the single digits, which would be the case if Columbus wins tonight.
That's not to say the players are going to go out and deliberately lay an egg, but they don't have to; the front office and coaching staff are icing so little talent that the result should take care of itself.
The Blue Jackets have posted a league-worst 36% share of the expected goals over the past 10 games. That's unfathomably bad.
Jon Gillies is expected to be tasked with cleaning up the abundance of mistakes made in front of him. Gillies owns an .876 save percentage in the AHL this season, so he's not exactly well-equipped to do the job.
The Sabres will want to finish their season feeling good about themselves, and their high-powered offense should overwhelm this Blue Jackets team.
Look for Buffalo to win in 60 minutes - likely in convincing fashion.
Bet: Sabres in regulation (-110)
Avalanche (-220) @ Predators (+190)
This one is pretty cut-and-dry. A win tonight gives the Avalanche a division title and home-ice advantage through two playoff rounds.
Standing in their way is a bad Predators team playing its worst hockey of the season. Nashville owns a sub-40% expected goal share over the past 10 games, and no team has scored fewer goals at five-on-five.
With multiple key injuries, the Predators don't have the firepower, depth, or defensive acumen to stop that slide.
Juuse Saros was a one-man band keeping the team afloat during the wild-card race. He started Thursday night, though, and this season finale holds no significance for Nashville; it's likely he'll get the night off.
Kevin Lankinen has been solid as a backup, but Saros has saved nearly 40 more goals above expected on the year. Lankinen won't be able to bolster this version of the Predators the way Saros does, and he's unlikely to get much offensive support at the other end.
Expect the Avalanche to take care of business against a watered-down lineup and put themselves in prime position heading into the playoffs.
Bet: Avalanche in regulation (-145)
Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-140)
We're going back to ol' reliable with our final player prop of the regular season.
MacKinnon continues to generate shots in bulk, going over this total in 18 of the past 30 games (60% hit rate). Only David Pastrnak has attempted more shots than MacKinnon over that span, which is also true of the last 10 games.
Colorado still has something to play for, and the Predators are struggling mightily to limit shots. MacKinnon should pile them up, especially after generating six shots on goal or more in seven straight games against Nashville dating back to last year.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.