NHL Monday best bets: Stars to shine at home
The NHL playoffs have finally arrived! We have four games on the first slate of the postseason, with plenty of attractive options to choose from on the betting board.
Let's dive into a few of my favorites as we look to hit the ground running.
Wild (+120) @ Stars (-140)
I think the Wild are in for a rude awakening in this series. That's not to say I expect them to be blown out of the rink every night; I think it'll be pretty clear they're not the better team.
They limped to the finish line in the regular season, posting a 48% expected goal share over the final 25 games of the year. They were a below-average team at generating and preventing scoring chances.
While Kirill Kaprizov getting healthy will certainly help, the Wild are going to have a tough time keeping up in this series.
They met the Stars four times during the regular season. Including all gamestates, the Stars posted a 56.7% xG share or higher in every single game.
More than anything, the Wild had a difficult time slowing down Dallas' lethal top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski.
I see no reason to expect that to change in this series. As mentioned, the Wild were a subpar team at limiting chances down the stretch. Without Joel Eriksson Ek, one of the better two-way pivots in the league, I don't see a solution for Minnesota to keep Dallas' top players in check.
With a bounce-back year from captain Jamie Benn, and the continued emergence of Wyatt Johnston, the Stars should also have the more reliable secondary scoring options.
Simply put, the Stars are the better team top to bottom. They have more paths to victory than the Wild do and, as a bonus, control the matchups at home.
Look for them to take care of business in Game 1.
Bet: Stars (-140)
Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (-140)
Tkachuk is sizzling hot heading into the playoffs. He has registered four shots or more in 20 of the past 30 games, good for a healthy 66% success rate.
Although the Boston Bruins are a powerhouse team nobody wants to see in the playoffs, I don't think Tkachuk will have much problem generating shots in bulk against them.
Tkachuk recorded 20 shots over the span of four regular season meetings, going over the total three times.
Coaches tend to lean even more heavily on their stars come playoff time, and Tkachuk has consistently made the most of extreme usage. Paul Maurice played Tkachuk 20 minutes or more 16 times since February 20th. Of those 16 games, he amassed at least four shots on goal 13 times.
I expect Tkachuk to get all the ice he can handle in this game. Given his success when logging heavy minutes - and the fact Boston ranks bottom five in shots allowed against left wingers over the past 10 games - we should expect a strong showing from Florida's top winger.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots (-132)
The bad news is the Los Angeles Kings are a fantastic shot-suppression team that, over the course of the entire season, ranked top five in terms of limiting shots to opposing centers.
The good news is it probably won't matter. McDavid was a shot-generating machine all year long, especially on home ice. He recorded four shots or more in 30 of 41 games in Edmonton, which is a whopping 73% hit rate.
Los Angeles had very similar personnel - and played the same brand of hockey - when the two sides met in the playoffs last year. McDavid still had multiple points in six of seven and went over the number on his total in three straight to end the series.
It's also worth noting - despite a couple games being blowouts where ice time was cut - McDavid piled up 31 attempts over four games at home. That's nearly eight attempts per game, which is more than enough for a player of McDavid's caliber to get the job done.
Win or lose, McDavid should be able to generate a handful of shots in the opener.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.