NHL Thursday best bets: Maple Leafs to respond at home
Another day, another four playoff games in the NHL. There are plenty of attractive options on the board for the slate ahead. Let's dive into a few.
Lightning (+150) @ Maple Leafs (-175)
The Maple Leafs put up an absolute dud in the opening game of the series. They were very slow out of the gate and took a needless five-minute major as soon as they started to crawl back into the game, which turned a potentially close contest into an embarrassing blowout loss.
Not everything to come from that game was bad for the team, though. The Lightning suffered some injuries along the way.
Mikey Eyssimont and Erik Cernak were ruled out for tonight's game, while Victor Hedman's status is up in the air after he left Game 1 with an injury. Even if he plays, it's safe to assume he'll be well short of 100%.
Eyssimont is a solid depth winger, but his absence isn't overly consequential. However, the losses of Cernak - and perhaps Hedman - are massive.
With Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta departing last offseason, this team isn't nearly as deep on defense as it used to be. The Lightning are already dressing and handing important minutes to guys like Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh.
A case could be made for Cernak being the team's best in-zone defender. Even if Hedman is able to go, losing Cernak makes an already top-heavy blue line even more so.
The Maple Leafs have had a couple days to chew on a disastrous Game 1 performance. They know the importance of this game and, with Tampa's injuries on defense, have a golden opportunity to even the series.
I expect Toronto to come out with a much better effort and take care of business without the help of overtime.
Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-110)
William Nylander over 3.5 shots (+105)
Nylander is quietly on a nice shooting run at home. He registered four shots or more in 19 of the past 30 games in Toronto - including in Game 1.
He enjoyed a lot of success against the Bolts this season. Through four games, Nylander piled up 23 shots while going over his shot total in each meeting.
Nylander attempted no fewer than seven shots in any game against the Lightning. With that kind of volume, it's no coincidence he gets the job done on such a consistent basis.
I expect the Maple Leafs to play with purpose and pile up the shots in this contest. With Cernak, and potentially Hedman, out of the lineup, the Lightning just don't have the horses defensively.
Whether the Lightning win or lose, I think they're going to spend a lot of time on their heels absorbing shots. Expect plenty of them to come off Nylander's stick.
Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots (-132)
MacKinnon is an unstoppable force at home. Dating back to last year, he recorded five shots or more in nine of 12 playoff games in which he logged 20-plus minutes.
As we saw in Game 1, the Kraken are a solid team that won't just roll over. These games are going to be competitive, meaning MacKinnon will see a lot of ice.
It doesn't much matter who the opponent is; MacKinnon is extremely efficient as a shot generator, so if the usage is there, the shots will be too.
MacKinnon attempted 11 shots and hit the target seven times in 20 minutes of ice last time out. There's no reason he can't put forth a similar stat line in a crucial game for the Avalanche.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.