NHL Tuesday best bets: Islanders to stave off elimination

Monday night was a good one on the ice. We came out on top in two of three featured plays, including our underdog play on the Devils at +130.

We'll look to keep the momentum going with three plays for Tuesday's three-game slate.

Islanders (+135) @ Hurricanes (-155)

The Hurricanes are a better team than the Islanders and a good bet to win the series. But it's hard to get behind them at this price.

With no Max Pacioretty, Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, or - potentially - Jack Drury, this Carolina team has been decimated on the wing. There isn't much scoring pop left in the lineup.

Those absences have also taken a healthy bite out of the Hurricanes' ability to drive play. Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Islanders have both outchanced and outscored Carolina at five-on-five.

New York has hung in extremely well against one of the NHL's most consistently dominant even-strength teams - it just hasn't been able to slow the Hurricanes' power play.

Carolina has scored five power-play goals over four games, while the Islanders have found the back of the net just once with the man advantage (and conceded a shorthanded goal).

While the Hurricanes deserve credit for that, it seems unlikely they can rely as heavily on the power play in Game 5.

For one, the Islanders ranked ninth in power-play goals against per minute and third in shorthanded save percentage during the regular season. They're normally adept at killing penalties, and it will be shocking if Ilya Sorokin continues to let the Hurricanes score on 25% of their power-play shots.

This is an elimination game for New York. That means - rightly or wrongly - the refs are likely to tuck the whistles away as much as possible. Given the way the special-teams battle has gone for the Islanders thus far, that should work in their favor.

This should be a close and sweaty game. At +135, there's value on New York to pull it out.

Bet: Islanders (+135)

Miro Heiskanen over 2.5 shots (-110)

Heiskanen is one of the best volume shooting defensemen in the NHL. He does his best work on home ice, coming through in 27 of the Stars' 41 games at American Airlines Center this season. That's an impressive 66% hit rate.

Heiskanen recorded three shots or more in each of Dallas' first two games against the Wild. He failed to do so in two outings at Minnesota's Xcel Energy Center, though the venue is notably stingy when it comes to handing out shots.

Expect Heiskanen to get back on track Tuesday night in Dallas. His volume is consistently higher at home - he averages 1.3 more attempts than he does on the road - and he should get all the ice time he can handle in this massive swing game.

If Dallas loses tonight, the Wild return home with a chance to close out the series in their own building. Expect the Stars to ride their stars in an effort to take control of this series.

Adrian Kempe over 3.5 shots (-115)

Kempe's shot volume has been remarkably good through the Kings' first four games against the Oilers. He's attempted 39 shots, tying him with Nathan MacKinnon for the playoff lead.

That volume has translated to success in the shot prop market. Kempe has hit in three of four games thus far, coming just one short last time out.

It wasn't for a lack of trying. Kempe attempted seven shots despite only getting two minutes of work on the power play; he had at least four minutes in each of the three previous games. Had one of his four misses hit the target, he'd be looking at a clean 4-0 record.

Kempe hit in each of the first two games at Edmonton's Rogers Place, recording 10 shot attempts or more in both affairs. Expect another productive effort tonight.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.