Stanley Cup betting: Looking at in-series value after Game 4s

Are we having fun yet? Or is that just the feeling of exhaustion after eight nights' worth of mayhem in the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Each series has gone four games, and no one's been eliminated. We've hit a point in the first round where series positions have been established, so moneyline bets or in-series adds aren't often necessary. Nevertheless, we'll take a quick look at each series to dissect what to expect when it comes to closing time.

Islanders (+800) @ Hurricanes (-1600)

Even-strength numbers

Let's start with a public service announcement: For a series where the underdog has to run the table, just roll over the moneylines.

Here's what rolling over moneylines looks like for the Islanders on a $10 bet with lines of +140 in Game 5, -110 in Game 6, and +130 in Game 7:

• $10 x 2.4 x 1.9 x 2.3 = +$95 (+950)

The Isles' hopes rest on the fact that they've been the better team - with metrics that would suggest they'd be leading a series 57% of the time - and that as long as they're alive, there's still time for Ilya Sorokin to step up and bring a level of play similar to what Antti Raanta is providing the Hurricanes.

Wild (+130) @ Stars (-150)

Even-strength numbers

The reason to bet on the Stars before the series was because they might get something of a free win if the Wild stuck with their plan to play Marc-Andre Fleury at some point. Sure enough, the Stars rolled in Game 2, but now they have to deal with the best goalie in the series - Filip Gustavsson - who's saved almost a full goal above expectation per 60 minutes.

Jake Oettinger met Gustavsson's level in Game 4, so we'll hope that any pre-series or in-series positions on the Stars come through, with no value on either side currently.

Kings (+210) @ Oilers (-270)

Even-strength numbers

The Kings were so very close to cashing +1.5 series games tickets on Sunday, and now they're back to the same odds they had before the series and after Game 2. There's little to do beyond hold Kings tickets unless Jack Campbell starts for the Oilers in Game 5, which would trigger a bet on Los Angeles.

Panthers (+1500) @ Bruins (-3000)

Even-strength numbers

When one out of every six high-danger chances is going in at one end of the ice, and one out of every 10-plus high-danger chances is going in at the other end, there's going to be a lopsided result relative to metrics like expected goals. That's the difference between Linus Ullmark playing up to his standard and the Panthers' goaltenders playing down to theirs - a standard that was always going to have to change or be overcome.

Kraken (+210) @ Avalanche (-270)

Even-strength numbers

There's no one on the Kraken roster who'll make your jaw drop with skill like Nathan MacKinnon's speed, Cale Makar's agility, and Mikko Rantanen's release. However, if the Avalanche aren't careful, they're going to get beat. The pre-series issue remains: How do you price the defending champs who aren't guaranteed to show up for a period or a game? Now a three-game series, more variance is in play for an upset, so the Kraken's odds are shorter than before the series.

Lightning (+750) @ Maple Leafs (-1200)

Even-strength numbers

The problem with a 3-1 lead is that now you can blow a 3-1 lead. Those following the pre-series handicap are sitting on a handful of tickets for a quick series, and all you can ask for is a home game to close it out. In Games 1 and 2, the Maple Leafs drove play at a two-thirds rate, while the Lightning had a slight edge at home. Both kept with the moneyline odds for the game, so pricing seems pretty fair.

Rangers (-115) @ Devils (-105)

Even-strength numbers

The Devils scored their first goal on an even-strength high-danger chance in the series in Game 4. One goal out of 50 tries when staring down Igor Shesterkin is a wild stat, yet the Devils are headed back home tied at two.

Not to overcomplicate things, the Devils replaced Vitek Vanecek's minus-2.99 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) with Akira Schmid's plus-3.29 GSAx in two games. With that change in quality between the pipes, very little else matters. The Devils were -125 to win the series before it started, and now they're -105 with questions in net answered and their own HDC conversion rate set to improve.

Jets (+750) @ Golden Knights (-1200)

Even-strength numbers

Betting on the Jets was really more of a fade of the Golden Knights, particularly at prices that suggested that you were getting plus money on a coin flip before the series. However, sometimes the coin lands on the wrong side, even if it's weighted. Winnipeg has had key player after key player injured and isn't getting anything from Connor Hellebuyck to save the day.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.