NHL Wednesday best bets: Release the Kraken
It was another good night on the ice for our best bets. We once again cashed a healthy road underdog in the Islanders and split our player props, giving us a profitable evening.
We'll set our sights on another one with three more plays for Wednesday's pint-sized slate.
Kraken (+155) @ Avalanche (-180)
The Kraken have been impressive thus far. They've controlled better than 55% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five, which is the second-highest output of all playoff teams.
That stems largely from their ability to generate quality opportunities in bulk. They're averaging better than 3.0 expected goals per 60 minutes at full strength and are testing Alexandar Georgiev.
The loss of Jared McCann hurts their offense, to be sure, but the Kraken are built much more on depth than star power. They have speed and scoring ability throughout their lineup, and there are plenty of reliable contributors who can help pick up the slack.
I'm not sure the same can be said about the Avalanche. They're driven by their stars a lot more than depth, the latter of which they don't have. With Valeri Nichushkin out and Cale Makar now suspended, the Avalanche are missing two big horses at the top of the lineup. That is killer.
The Kraken are tied in this series - and have out-chanced the Avalanche - because of their depth advantage. That should shine through even further with Nichushkin and Makar out of the picture.
Although there's always the possibility of Philipp Grubauer throwing up a dud, Seattle's depth should allow the Kraken to control a lot of the play at five-on-five. Grubauer shouldn't need to excel in this game; he'll just need to be competent.
Much like with the Devils on Monday and the Islanders on Tuesday, I'm happy to take my chances on big underdogs with better underlying profiles.
Bet: Kraken (+155)
Patrice Bergeron over 2.5 shots (-140)
Bergeron is expected to make his series debut in Game 5. He'll jump right into the thick of things, centering David Pastrnak on the Bruins' top line. That certainly serves as a strong indicator that he's ready to play and will be given a full workload in this close-out game.
Assuming that's the case, it's hard not to love Bergeron in the shot prop market. He was an absolute machine at home this season, averaging 3.3 shots on goal while going over this number 73% of the time.
His shot line is often set to 3.5. Had he been healthy for the entirety of the series, that's almost certainly where the number would be for this game.
Bergeron has a strong history against the Panthers as well. He recorded four shots or more in three of four meetings this season and five of the last six dating back to last year.
Take advantage of Bergeron at a total we're unlikely to see moving forward.
Devon Toews over 0.5 assists (-115)
Makar's absence means more even-strength minutes - and the quarterbacking role on the top power play - will be on Toews' plate.
He's certainly shown the ability to take advantage of it. Makar was sidelined for an eight-game period down the stretch. In that span, Toews had a goal and nine assists while routinely playing 25-plus minutes.
That was in the regular season, too. In a playoff game where the loser gets put on the brink of elimination, head coach Jared Bednar is likely to lean even more heavily on his temporary No. 1 defenseman.
Toews is going to play extreme minutes in all situations. He's much more of a shot-creator than a shot-taker, so the likelihood of any point he tallies coming by way of an assist is quite high.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.