NHL Tuesday best bets: Leafs, Matthews to start series strong
The second round of the playoffs begins tonight, with the Maple Leafs and Stars playing host to a couple of wild-card teams that managed huge upsets in Round 1.
Let's take a look at a few of the best ways to attack those games.
Panthers (+140) @ Maple Leafs (-165)
The Leafs enjoyed plenty of regular-season success against the Panthers, posting a 3-1 record while scoring 15 goals.
They controlled a healthy 55% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, which is always a recipe for success when you have the kind of talent the Maple Leafs have. They don't need many scoring chances to convert, as we just saw against Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning.
While the Panthers are getting more respect following their impressive upset over the Bruins, it's worth noting injuries played a large factor.
The Bruins continually trotted out a banged-up - and struggling - Linus Ullmark until their margin for error completely evaporated. Top-line center Patrice Bergeron was playing with a herniated disc while their No. 2 pivot, David Krejci, was also well under 100%.
Florida deserves a ton of credit for taking advantage, but I think the team's fairytale playoff run ends against Toronto, starting Tuesday.
The Leafs have been resting for a few days, while the Panthers had to play in a taxing overtime game Sunday evening.
Paul Maurice was forced to ride his horses into the ground, playing Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling, and Aaron Ekblad at least 24 minutes each.
This is a very quick turnaround against a Maple Leafs team that's loaded with talent and - after beating the Lightning - some newfound confidence.
Look for the Leafs to take care of business inside 60 minutes.
Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-105)
Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-110)
Matthews was quietly a shooting machine in the opening round. He attempted 50 shots over six games, good for a healthy average of 8.33. That's a very strong rate against a Lightning team that plays heavy hockey and tries to slow down the pace of play.
Only seven players generated more shot attempts than Matthews in the first round. Four of them played an extra game and two of the three exceptions were top defensemen who play more minutes on a nightly basis by default.
I think Matthews - who had five goals, nine points, and an abundance of scoring chances against Tampa Bay - will be feeling pretty good about himself and ready to feast on a less defensively inclined Panthers team.
Dating back to last year's campaign, Matthews has piled up 55 attempts and eight points over the past six games against the Panthers.
This is a good matchup for him. At home, Sheldon Keefe should be able to get him in more advantageous situations to create offense.
Look for a big game from Matthews to start the series.
Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots (-110)
Death, taxes, and Jason Robertson at home. All of you who've followed these posts throughout the year know that Robertson is a different animal when playing in Dallas.
He averaged 7.9 attempts and hit the over on his total 66% of the time at home during the regular season.
His numbers were drastically worse on the road, where he averaged six attempts and posted a 45% success rate.
That trend has continued in the playoffs. Robertson recorded 15 shots and 30 attempts in three home games, hitting the over in each of them.
He didn't fare nearly as well in Minnesota, generating seven shots on 16 attempts over three games.
Robertson is back at home Tuesday night against a Kraken squad that - while generally stout defensively - gave up a ton of volume to dynamic shooters like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen in Round 1. Look for Robertson to continue that trend.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.