NHL Wednesday best bets: Oilers to strike first
The next wave of second-round series begins on Wednesday night. Let's take a look at a few ways to attack them with our best bets.
Oilers (-115) @ Golden Knights (-105)
The Oilers put forth an impressive first-round effort against the Kings. At five-on-five, they posted a 55% share of the expected goals and won by 0.80 goals per 60 minutes, ranking them third and second, respectively, among playoff teams.
Although the Golden Knights slot higher than the Oilers in both categories, it's important to put the numbers into context.
Edmonton played a 104-point Kings team that was three lines deep and a top-10 five-on-five side over the course of the regular season.
Vegas had a much easier path, topping a 95-point Jets squad that was missing key pieces like Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Cole Perfetti, and Nikolaj Ehlers for chunks - if not the entirety - of the series. The Jets are top-heavy, so not having those pieces was significant. Put simply, the caliber of the opponent was nowhere close to what the Oilers dealt with.
This is a big step up in class for the Golden Knights, and I think they're going to have a much tougher time.
The Oilers gave them a world of trouble in the regular season, winning three of four meetings and scoring 18 goals over that span.
Their big guns are going to be a lot for the Golden Knights to handle - especially if captain and marquee two-way winger Mark Stone is playing at less than 100%.
It's also going to be a tall order for Laurent Brossoit. He has performed quite well of late, but just a year ago, he played his way out of the NHL with subpar goaltending.
A few good weeks aren't enough to leave me overly confident he can do the job against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and a terrifyingly good Oilers offense.
I like Edmonton to win the series and start on the right foot in Game 1.
Bet: Oilers (-115)
Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots (-115)
The Hurricanes are about the toughest matchup you can draw when it comes to generating shots. It doesn't seem to matter for Hughes. The Devils' dynamic superstar registered 20 shots over four regular-season matchups versus the Hurricanes, hitting the over in three of four.
Hughes is ultra-efficient with his ice time, and in the playoffs, he's seeing even more of it. Hughes played at least 20 minutes in five of seven opening-round games. He logged 18:33 and 19:33 in the two exceptions, both of which were four-goal games where the end result was well-established long before the game concluded.
The point is, if the game is remotely close, Hughes will play a ton. I don't have much concern about that being the case in Game 1. With so many key injuries up front, scoring goals is a challenge for the Hurricanes, even when they're outplaying the opposition.
Even if the well-rested Hurricanes control the play tonight, I don't see them being clinical enough to put the game away.
Expect Hughes to get a healthy dose of ice time and pile up the shots.
Brent Burns over 3.5 shots (-110)
Burns was a one-man shooting gallery in the first round of the playoffs. He attempted at least eight shots and hit the over in five of six games.
He was particularly effective on home ice, where he generated 16 shots on 31 attempts over three games. Insane production.
As already alluded to, the Hurricanes are missing several key weapons up front. That makes it even more imperative an offensively inclined defenseman like Burns gets involved and helps the team create shots and chances.
He certainly had no problem doing so in Round 1, even against a stingy, slower-paced team like the Islanders.
The Devils - like the Hurricanes - are generally a team to avoid targeting when it comes to shots. However, Burns' volume is so strong he's worth making an exception for.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.