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NHL Thursday best bets: Will the over trend continue?

Josh Lavallee / National Hockey League / Getty

For the second night in a row, we have an exciting slate featuring an elimination game and a swing game.

Let's dive into the best ways to attack them.

Devils (+110) @ Hurricanes (-130)

This series hasn't been overly exciting in terms of competitiveness. All four games to date were complete blowouts decided by four goals or more.

But it has been exciting in terms of offense. We've seen 32 goals through four games, good for an average of eight per game. The lowest output thus far was in Game 1, where the two sides combined for six goals.

The reason that's exciting is because of the total. Each game, the line was set at 5.5, and each game, we had more than that.

While Akira Schmid versus Frederik Andersen is probably the optimal goaltending matchup for preventing goals, I still expect to see plenty.

Schmid has come back down to earth following a lights-out performance against the Rangers. He's appeared three times in this series, allowing eight goals on just 48 shots. That's an .833 save percentage.

Clearly, he hasn't played impeccable hockey, and being yo-yoed in and out of the net probably won't help his confidence, either. I think Schmid is a better goaltender than he's shown in this series, but certainly not the guy we saw dominate the Rangers in the opening round.

On the flip side, Andersen is a gettable goaltender as well. He's statistically one of the worst goaltenders in the league in terms of coughing up rebounds. There should be second-chance opportunities for a Devils team that has plenty of supremely talented forwards.

Andersen has tightened up a little bit in the playoffs, but during the regular season, he legitimately was a negative in goals saved above expected. That means he allowed more goals than he should have, given the workload faced.

The Hurricanes have proven they can score without some of their big guns up front. If they're behind, they'll put a ton of pressure on Schmid.

We know the Devils have plenty of stars as well that can get to Andersen. Not to mention, they'll likely pull the goalie with plenty of time to spare if they're down one, two, or even three goals in the third period. That could lead to an extra tuck or two to get us over the number.

Bet: Over 5.5 (-125)

Brent Burns over 3.5 shots (+110)

It hasn't been a noisy series for Burns. While his Hurricanes hold a commanding 3-1 lead over the Devils, he hasn't been overly involved in the offense. He's found the scoresheet in only one of four games and failed to record four shots in any of them.

Despite that, I still favor Burns in this spot. He's been a monster at home in these playoffs, attempting 46 shots over five games and generating at least eight attempts in all but one. The exception was Game 1 against the Devils, where the Hurricanes led for 50 minutes and didn't need to attack.

One would think the Devils aren't going to get blown out again with their season on the line. If that proves true, Burns will spend upwards of 25 minutes on the ice looking for opportunities to get involved and help create offense.

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots (-135)

Hintz has cracked the Kraken. He's piled up 15 shots through the first four games of the series, going over his total in all but Game 4. That was a blowout in which the Stars spent the final period and change dumping pucks in and not seeming the least bit interested in trying to generate any offense.

His two best shooting games of the series came at home, where Hintz attempted six and seven shots in Games 1 and 2, respectively. Hintz is a selective shooter who likes to get in tight before pulling the trigger, so if he's generating that kind of volume, it's going to lead to insane success.

That's no exaggeration, either. Over the 30 games Hintz attempted six shots or more, he recorded at least three shots in 26 of them. That translates to an 87% hit rate.

He's gone over the number in four of five home playoff games and all five home games played against the Kraken this season. Look for him to stay hot in Game 5.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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