3 questions Panthers must answer to secure spot in Stanley Cup Final
After back-to-back overtime victories, the Florida Panthers are two wins away from competing for the Stanley Cup. Easier said than done, of course, with the Carolina Hurricanes staring back in a tightly contested Eastern Conference showdown. Games 3 and 4 go Monday and Wednesday in Sunrise. Here are three questions the Panthers must answer to secure a Cup Final spot.
Can Bobrovsky hold off Carolina's charge?
The Panthers and Hurricanes played all 201:38 of the first two games - the equivalent of 10 full periods, thanks to overtime - with the score tied or with one team leading by a single goal. Despite what the win-loss counter might suggest, neither club has felt entirely comfortable or been in complete control.
This is both good and bad for Carolina, who can't afford to fall behind 3-0.
It's good because the Hurricanes are generating enough offense to win, with 23 quality scoring chances per game to the Panthers' 17, per Sportlogiq. It's also good because Rod Brind'Amour's squad is process-driven and rarely takes its foot off the gas - especially after losses, as evidenced by the 12-1 shot advantage to kickstart Game 2.
"I thought we had the better of it. We just haven't found a way to score," Brind'Amour said after Saturday's 2-1 loss in front of a raucous home crowd.
It's a virtual guarantee the Hurricanes, arguably the NHL's most predictable team in terms of playing style and effort level, will continue to push hard.
On the flip side, the tightness of this series is bad for Carolina because, well, the opposing goalie is on a heater and, now armed with a 2-0 series lead, has a wider margin of error. Among the 10 goalies who've logged 400 playoff minutes, Sergei Bobrovsky is first in goals saved above expected (7.53, according to Sportlogiq) and tied for second in save percentage (.931). In this series alone, he's rocking an incredible 5.56 goals saved above expected rate.
It's also bad because Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty, the Hurricanes' purest finishers, are unavailable due to injury. After capitalizing on their opportunities just fine in Rounds 1 and 2, Carolina's hit a wall, producing only one five-on-five goal against Florida. Sophomore Seth Jarvis, who scored on the power play in Game 1, seems particularly snakebitten at even strength.
This series has yet to feature a "greasy" goal, which is surprising and probably not a sustainable trend given both teams' preference for dump-ins and heavy forechecking. During chaotic moments of blanketing screens, jam attempts, and strange bounces, all three goalies have been perfect - so far, anyway. Dialing up the greasiness would be the most feasible way to cool Bobrovsky's heater.
Can Barkov continue to outduel Staal?
It's undeniable: The Panthers' top skaters have outperformed the Hurricanes' top skaters in head-to-head battles through two games.
The first layer: Florida captain Aleksander Barkov outdueling Carolina captain Jordan Staal. Barkov and linemates Carter Verhaeghe and Anthony Duclair hold a 2-0 edge in 39 minutes thanks to two snipes from Barkov, who on Saturday displayed his world-class poise and reach with a gorgeous net drive.
Staal was also an offensive catalyst in Game 2. He and linemates Martin Necas and Teuvo Teravainen created a handful of point-blank looks in Florida's zone, but they had nothing to show for them. Staal hasn't been the issue - Necas doesn't look his dynamic self, while Teravainen is rusty and/or still hurt after getting injured in Round 1.
Will Panthers coach Paul Maurice let the Barkov-Staal matchup cook in Games 3 and 4 - even though he could get Barkov away from Staal with the home-team benefit of last change? Letting it cook is certainly worth a try.
The gamesmanship from Maurice might actually appear in the second layer. The Nick Cousins-Sam Bennett-Matthew Tkachuk line has fared well overall (14-9 in high-danger attempts, 1-0 in goals) while mostly facing Carolina's best blue-liners, Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns. Yet the agitating trio can really feast on the third pairing of Shayne Gostisbehere and Jalen Chatfield.
On top of potting both overtime goals and making a clutch defensive play on a Hurricanes counter midway through the third period in Game 2, Tkachuk's been his usual pesky self. He's accidentally-on-purpose collided with the goalie multiple times, partaken in post-whistle scrums, and yapped many ears off. Tkachuk is deploying every trick in his bag, and damn, he's getting results.
Consider this, too: Florida has scored within five seconds of a five-on-five turnover a whopping 10 times in 14 playoff games. No. 10 was Tkachuk's Game 1 winner, and while Barkov's Game 2 tally missed the five-second cutoff, it too was scored after a five-on-five turnover (roughly 10 seconds).
It almost goes without saying, but Carolina must manage the puck properly.
Can everybody stay out of penalty box?
History is on Florida's side here. The team with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series in the round before the Cup Final has gone on to win 91% of the time.
If Carolina is able to mount a comeback, one or both of Frederik Andersen (who started Game 1 and will likely start Game 3) and Antti Raanta (Game 2 starter) will need to be steady. They've done their part so far, and the Hurricanes' system is friendly enough to goalies that it's not a huge series-tilting factor.
What might tilt the series is the Panthers' discipline level.
Florida led the league in minor penalties during the regular season. They co-led the league again during the first round. They smartened up (and received some help from the officials) during the second round. Against Carolina, the Panthers' discipline has been … somewhere in the middle of the extremes.
The Hurricanes capitalized on two of six power-play opportunities in Game 1, then went zero-for-three in Game 2. Bennett has been the No. 1 culprit. He was penalized three times - for delay of game (puck over glass) and boarding in the opener and for holding in the second game.
This isn't a sky-is-falling scenario for the Panthers or Bennett. They can rein it in. If they don't, the Hurricanes, starved for five-on-five goals, could make it a competitive series by making hay on the power play.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).