One win away: The Golden Knights' road map to finishing off Panthers
The Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Florida Panthers 3-2 on Saturday night in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final. While teams leading 3-1 in the Final are 36-1 all time, the Panthers are capable of mounting an unlikely comeback, having erased a 3-1 deficit versus the Boston Bruins in the opening round. Here's the road map to Vegas taming Florida in Tuesday's Game 5 - then raising the Cup.
Zero in on Florida's stars
Heading into the Final, there was a case to be made that the teams' top three forward lines and top two defense pairings were equally talented. However, Vegas' overqualified fourth line of Nicolas Roy between William Carrier and Keegan Kolesar and the burgeoning third pair of Nicolas Hague and Zach Whitecloud is what tipped the scales in Vegas' favor as far as depth and head-to-head matchups.
Fast-forward four games, and Florida's usually productive third line has been minimized due to the absence of Eetu Luostarinen, who's out with an undisclosed injury. Alongside fill-in Ryan Lomberg, Anton Lundell and Sam Reinhart haven't generated nearly as many scoring chances off the cycle and forecheck as we've come to expect during this playoff run.
It may seem wacky to suggest that losing a depth piece like Luostarinen has tilted the series. Yet, the Lomberg-Lundell-Reinhart trio has generated virtually nothing of substance through 21 five-on-five minutes (zero goals, two high-danger shot attempts, according to Natural Stat Trick). Lomberg's old line has somehow accomplished less (zero goals, one high-danger attempt).
An ineffective bottom six means Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Brandon Montour have to be even bigger catalysts than they've already been. The club's play-driving stars have combined for eight points in four games, which is alright but not good enough. A glimmer of hope for Panther fans: The greater the moment throughout the postseason, the better their leaders have played.
Barkov, in particular, must put forth another monstrous performance. The captain looked terrific at both ends of the ice during Florida's home games, putting the clamps on Jack Eichel in Game 3 and then bagging a goal and a primary assist in Game 4. His 55.7% expected goals rate leads the team.
Tkachuk had two glorious chances in the first 10 minutes of Saturday's contest before failing to convert on a point-blank opportunity with the net empty and time running out in the third period. The Hart Trophy finalist was noticeably less physical along the boards and in the corners, and he skated for only 4:03 in the third and 16:40 total. Obviously hurt, Tkachuk's Game 5 status is up in the air.
The math is simple for Vegas at this point: The more difficult life is made on Tkachuk, Barkov, and Montour, the more likely they are to hoist the Cup.
Dominate the neutral zone
To the eye, the transition battle in this series has been completely one-sided. Most notably, Vegas has executed on the majority of stretch passes, while Florida's quick-strike tries have tended to yield icings and, thus, longer shifts.
It feels like Chandler Stephenson alone has flown through the neutral zone with the puck on his stick more times than the entire Panthers skater group. Both of the center's Game 4 goals were the byproduct of smart neutral-zone decisions. Whitecloud fed Stephenson a perfect pass for a zone entry ahead of his first goal, and Stephenson chipped the puck to a streaking Mark Stone for an entry moments before he scored his second off a one-timer.
Stone put on a clinic to start the second period Saturday - forechecking like a maniac, winning multiple puck battles, tipping several shots, and drawing a penalty over just a few shifts. He's been a rock star for the entirety of a 21-game postseason, with his 21 points failing to do his full body of work justice.
Led by Stone's dogged puck pursuit and puck-stripping abilities, the Golden Knights are pressuring Florida skaters into mistakes all over the rink. The Panthers have fumbled exits out of the defensive zone, leading to sustained zone time for Vegas. They've also fired pucks into shin pads, leading to a comical blocked shots counter of 99-54 for Vegas, the team that's almost always had the puck.
Adin Hill and his stellar work in the Golden Knights' crease can't be glossed over. He's been equal parts steady and stunning en route to a .925 save percentage off 120 total Florida shots. Hill's desperation paddle save on Nick Cousins in Game 1, with the score tied 1-1, was the series' first crossroads moment. If Cousins scores, would the Panthers be up 3-1?
Eyes on the ultimate prize
When a team's 60 good minutes away from sipping from the Cup, simply staying focused on the task at hand can become difficult. It isn't easy when everybody around you - in and outside of the organization - is making plans for the celebration. It's even harder in a chaotic party city like Las Vegas.
All of that said, the Bruce Cassidy-led Golden Knights have left no doubt that they can keep their eyes on the prize. The roster is filled with veterans, and the on-ice product has evolved into an organized, precise operation.
Florida will be throwing everything at Vegas in Game 5. The physicality will ramp up. The nastiness will ramp up. The number of risky plays will ramp up. The officiating, which hasn't been kind to the Panthers, could swing the other way. Surely, Florida's 0-for-13 power play will convert sometime soon.
The Panthers are a resilient and clutch bunch, as evidenced by a perfect 7-0 record in overtime games in these playoffs. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky could easily have another dynamite performance in him. TTechnically, this series isn't over. But if Vegas sticks to the road map, they'll be fine - Cup champion-level fine.
John Matisz is theScore's senior NHL writer. Follow John on Twitter (@MatiszJohn) or contact him via email ([email protected]).