Stanley Cup Game 5 best bets: Golden Knights to defend the 'Fortress'

It's now or never for the Panthers. Trailing 3-1 in the series, their backs are squarely against the wall as they enter the "Fortress" in hopes of clawing their way back into the series.

Can they bring it back home for a Game 6, or will the Golden Knights prove too much to slow down? Let's take a closer look.

Panthers (+150) @ Golden Knights (-175)

Let's call a spade a spade: The Golden Knights are the far superior team.

They have outscored the Panthers 17-9 through four games and been full value for it. The Golden Knights have controlled a 57% share of the expected goals at five-on-five and scored six goals in just 28 minutes on the power play.

That latter stat equates to 12.79 goals per 60 on the man advantage, closely aligning to the clip that a historically great Oilers power play clicked at during the regular season.

Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, and the Golden Knights' litany of fantastic two-way forwards have caused the Panthers problems at both ends of the ice during full-strength play. Florida has not been able to make up that ground on special teams.

With the Golden Knights being the much better side at five-on-five and the power play firing on all cylinders, the Panthers need Sergei Bobrovsky to be the great equalizer. He hasn't been.

While he's only had one truly bad game in this series, he has only been adequate over the other three. Adequate is not good enough.

The Golden Knights possess edges all across the board. They're at home playing in one of the loudest buildings in the sport. The Panthers have key players - most notably Matthew Tkachuk - at far less than 100%. And the list goes on.

Everything points toward the Golden Knights claiming their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. I expect they'll get it Tuesday and without the need for additional time.

Bet: Golden Knights in regulation (-115)

Aleksander Barkov over 2.5 shots (-140)

Volume is king in the shot world, and Barkov certainly has it. He has piled up 27 shot attempts through four games, good for an average of nearly seven per contest.

He has attempted at least five in three of four games thus far. That has been the sweet spot for Barkov all season long. The star pivot has gone over his shot total in 38 of 44 games he has amassed at least five attempts, which equates to a whopping 86% success rate.

Barkov leads all Panthers in expected goals for percentage in this series. More so than anyone else, the Panthers are outplaying the Golden Knights with Barkov on the ice.

With the Panthers controlling play when Barkov's out there and the captain set to chew up all the ice he can handle in a do-or-die affair, he's worth backing in Game 5.

Chandler Stephenson over 1.5 shots (-131)

Stephenson has quietly been an efficient shooter in this series. He has attempted 18 shots (4.5 per game) and registered 12 on target (3.0) through the first four games. Those are very solid numbers for a player with such a low total.

What I love about Stephenson's volume is that a lot of it is coming at five-on-five. In fact, a team-leading 10 of his 12 shots have been recorded in that game state.

This series has featured an awful lot of special teams play. With the Stanley Cup on the line and elimination a real possibility for the Panthers, I believe the refs will be a little looser with the whistle. They're not going to want these teams parading to the box and special teams deciding a winner.

I expect a lot of five-on-five play, and that's where Stephenson has done a lot of his damage. Look for him to clear this line for the fourth consecutive game.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.