2024 Stanley Cup futures: Uncertainty atop the oddsboard
The party continues in Las Vegas as the Golden Knights celebrate their owner's expansion proclamation that they could win the Stanley Cup within six years.
But unlike the NBA, where oddsmakers relented and made the Denver Nuggets the favorites for 2024, Vegas isn't the favorite heading into this offseason. Whenever the defending champion isn't the top choice for the title, that suggests there's a ton of uncertainty in the market. At this time last year, Denver had a different parade in the works, and the Avalanche were a pretty significant favorite to repeat at shorter than 5-1 odds. The best thing you can do at this way-too-early stage is shop for the best price for the team you're interested in backing.
2024 Stanley Cup odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Oilers | +800 |
| Bruins | +800 |
| Avalanche | +800 |
| Maple Leafs | +900 |
| Hurricanes | +1200 |
| Devils | +1200 |
| Golden Knights | +1500 |
| Stars | +1600 |
| Rangers | +1600 |
| Lightning | +1600 |
| Panthers | +2000 |
| Flames | +2500 |
| Kings | +2500 |
| Wild | +3000 |
| Penguins | +3500 |
| Sabres | +4000 |
| Kraken | +4000 |
| Islanders | +5000 |
| Senators | +5000 |
| Jets | +5000 |
| Predators | +6000 |
| Capitals | +6000 |
| Blues | +7500 |
| Canucks | +7500 |
| Red Wings | +10000 |
| Canadiens | +20000 |
| Ducks | +25000 |
| Coyotes | +25000 |
| Blue Jackets | +25000 |
| Blackhawks | +25000 |
| Flyers | +25000 |
| Sharks | +25000 |
According to theScore Bet, three teams share the honor of being Stanley Cup co-favorites - but if you have three favorites for a championship, you don't really have one.
The Oilers are expected to be back in contention for a simple reason - they still have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. However, this also presumes that Edmonton can find adequate goaltending. Last year's No. 1, Stuart Skinner, had a minus-6.97 goals saved above expected (GSAx), which was actually a step back from the last two playoffs with Mike Smith.
The Bruins' historic regular season was undermined by a first-round exit. Between that and some projected key losses to their leadership core, Boston's been lumped in with the other contenders rather than being placed in a higher tier. Speaking of first-round upsets - and even more upsetting player news - the Avalanche lost to the Kraken and learned that their captain, Gabriel Landeskog, needs another year to make a comeback.
Never far from market favoritism, the Maple Leafs (+900) are right behind the top three and getting more credit than the Golden Knights, who are 15-1. Betting markets often don't care much about whether you recently won a single series or all four. The good news for Vegas - a place that's into lucky signs and good omens - is that the Golden Knights were the same price at this time last year.
Further down the oddsboard, the Stanley Cup runner-ups are at 20-1. That's not an unfair price for the Panthers, who won the President's Trophy in 2021-22, were fourth on the board last June, and then optimized themselves for the playoffs before knocking off the three top teams in the East.
Will this offseason feature another big move similar to Florida's trade for Matthew Tkachuk? Those deals don't grow on trees. If you want to place a Stanley Cup bet this early in the offseason, you should look for a team with untapped potential that can put together a good regular season, and then grab it at a price you're convinced will improve by mid-April.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.