Predicting the top 5 scorers of the 2023-24 NHL season

A whopping 11 players hit the 100-point plateau last season, and we think the not-so-exclusive club will admit even more members in 2023-24. Yeehaw!

We've broken out our crystal ball and tarot cards (that's a thing, right?) to guess the top five scorers of the new season about seven months in advance. The picture was a little cloudy, so please don't be too mad if we're wrong - we are but novices in the future-predicting game.

Let's get started.

Honorable mention: Erik Karlsson 🐧

2022-23:

We know it's highly doubtful that Karlsson will post back-to-back 100-point seasons as a defenseman - Paul Coffey was the last to do it in 1988-89 and 1989-90 - but this exercise is supposed to be fun, right? The podium of this list is filled with the usual suspects, so we're trying to keep it fresh with one honorable mention - sue us.

The reigning Norris Trophy winner became the first blue-liner to hit the 100-point mark in a single season since Brian Leetch in 1991-92. And Karlsson pulled it off on a crappy San Jose Sharks squad that tanked its merry way to the bottom of the league's standings. Karlsson is now taking his skills to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who - let's face it - are more well-endowed in the talent department than the Sharks.

Instead of Karlsson's most common teammates on the ice being Tomas Hertl, Jaycob Megna, and Logan Couture, he'll now share the frozen sheet with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Kris Letang. He'll also likely take over duties on Pittsburgh's top power-play unit. Despite an improved supporting cast, Karlsson won't end the season as one of the top five scorers. However, he's got a shot to lead all blue-liners in points for the second campaign in a row.

5. Jason Robertson 🌟

2022-23:

Excuse this admittedly very tacky pun, but Robertson is the Dallas Stars' biggest ... star, and we expect astronomical things from him in 2023-24.

That might not seem fair given that Robertson just enjoyed a career year that saw him hit the 100-point mark for the first time, but the young talent has a knack for outdoing himself. In each of the last two campaigns, he's seen his offensive output increase by at least 30 points from the previous season. Oh, and he's coming off his second consecutive 40-goal campaign. Oh, and he's only 24 years old.

You may wonder why we opted to put Robertson on this list over, say, Boston Bruins sniper David Pastrnak or Tampa Bay Lightning stud Nikita Kucherov, considering both had four more points than him last season. It wasn't an easy decision, but the argument is sound. Pastrnak will no longer have Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to play with in 2023-24, while Robertson will again be rocking with Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz to form Dallas' dynamite top line. Kucherov averaged more than one full minute of ice time per game than Robertson last season, but the Stars winger beat him in points per 60 minutes (4.23) at all strengths.

4. Matthew Tkachuk 😼

2022-23 stats:

Tkachuk was arguably the most electrifying skater in the playoffs, so we'll ride the hot hand and bank on him to carry that momentum into the 2023-24 regular season.

The talented agitator is three months removed from ranking third in postseason scoring with 24 points in 20 games. He also led the league with four game-deciding goals, three of which were overtime winners. Determining the "clutch gene" isn't an exact science, but it's clear that Tkachuk has it in spades. Playoffs aside, putting Tkachuk on this list shouldn't raise any eyebrows. He's coming off his second consecutive 100-point campaign and was named a Hart Trophy finalist for the first time in his career.

Tkachuk clearly didn't need any time to adjust to his new surroundings, posting the second-most productive season in Florida Panthers history during his first year in the Sunshine State (trailing only Jonathan Huberdeau's 115-point campaign in 2021-22). And now we're excited to see what steps he takes in Year 2 after tying Robertson for sixth place in the scoring race in 2022-23. Tkachuk has spent his offseason recovering from a broken sternum sustained in the playoffs. He can certainly crack the top five if the injury doesn't hold him back.

3. Nathan MacKinnon ⛰️

2022-23 stats:

A 100-point season had previously eluded MacKinnon, but he only needed 71 games to accomplish the feat in 2022-23. That's just efficient, epic stuff from the 2022 Stanley Cup champion.

MacKinnon posted the league's third-highest point-per-game clip last season - trailing only that pair of Edmonton Oilers freaks - and it's the fifth-best rate in a single season in Colorado Avalanche history when accounting for players who skated in at least 20 games. Since MacKinnon's first point-per-game season in 2017-18, his 553 points (including 366 at even strength) in 409 contests are the third most in the NHL. He's been unbelievably, terrifyingly consistent, and it's for that reason he cracks the podium of this list.

The 28-year-old will be the highest-paid player in the league in 2023-24 now that his eight-year, $100.8-million extension is set to kick in. It might seem impossible since he's already so good, but we feel pretty safe saying MacKinnon will find a way to elevate his game further to match his new price tag. We wouldn't be surprised if he hits the 50-goal mark this season for the first time in his career.

2. Leon Draisaitl 🎯

2022-23 stats:

Between Draisaitl and the first-place guy on this list (who could it be?!), the Art Ross Trophy is almost definitely staying in Edmonton for the fifth straight season in 2023-24.

The German superstar has finished in the top five in league scoring for five seasons running, and we bet that he's about to make it six. Draisaitl reached a new level last campaign, potting a career-high 128 points, which would be a team high on any other squad except his own. Poor guy, but he's probably used to that by now.

Almost exactly half of Draisaitl's points and all but 20 of his goals came on the power play in 2022-23 as Edmonton set a single-season record with a 32.4% success rate on the man advantage. As long as the Oilers continue to draw penalties and he doesn't lose his marksman touch, there's no reason Draisaitl can't hit the 50-goal and 100-point plateaus for the third straight campaign. However, wrestling the Art Ross Trophy from the No. 1 player on these rankings is an entirely different story.

1. Connor McDavid 🚀

2022-23 stats:

The "scoring race" is more or less a battle for second place by this point. Apologies to the also-rans on this list, but it's true. We'd like to extend an early congratulations to McDavid for winning the 2023-24 Art Ross Trophy and maybe all of the scoring titles for the foreseeable future.

What other choice do we have? You'd be hard-pressed to find a single soul who didn't expect him to win his third consecutive Art Ross Trophy in 2022-23. But the Oilers superstar went ahead and shattered his already lofty expectations by becoming the first player to hit the 150-point mark since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. Oh, and he added world-beating goal-scorer to his list of skills by picking up his first Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy while eclipsing his previous career high in goals by a whopping 20 tallies. No biggie.

What everyone should be learning every year with McDavid is never to doubt the heights he can reach, seeing as he's constantly re-establishing his own bar. Will he become just the third skater in NHL history to hit the 160-point plateau in the new season? Probably, if he stays healthy. Seventy goals aren't out of the question, either - he only missed it by six last campaign. At the very least, if McDavid posts his second consecutive 150-point season in 2023-24, he'll become the third-fastest skater to hit 1,000 career points, trailing only Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.

Just missed the cut:

• Jack Hughes, Devils
• Nikita Kucherov, Lightning
• David Pastrnak, Bruins
• Mikko Rantanen, Avalanche

(Advanced stats source: Evolving-Hockey, Natural Stat Trick)