Hart Trophy Rankings: Star-studded field pursuing McDavid this season

There's little doubt about the front-runner for the Hart Trophy as the NHL season approaches. Connor McDavid rightfully took home the hardware for the second time in three years and third time overall after piling up 153 points in 2022-23.

Where the debate begins - as was the case for virtually all of last season - is in mulling the runners-up. While we expect the two other finalists from the summer to again vie for MVP honors, a previous winner will look to get back in the mix and a different perennial contender should keep himself in the hunt if he can stay healthy.

Jack Hughes appears destined to be a fixture in the Hart conversation for years to come, but he's not yet among the handful of the league's most valuable players. The Devils dominated as a team last season, and the young star's deep supporting cast got even deeper when New Jersey traded for Calgary Flames leading scorer Tyler Toffoli in late June. Consider Hughes an honorable mention.

Here are the top five MVP candidates as we near the start of the 2023-24 campaign:

5. Nathan MacKinnon

If anyone has a stellar group around him, it's MacKinnon. But few would argue with the Colorado Avalanche center being in the upper echelon when it comes to the NHL's most important players.

Colorado's catalyst might have some trouble cracking the top three because of how incredible Cale Makar is - not to mention Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews, and some shrewd offseason additions. But MacKinnon's individual impact is undeniable. Despite missing 11 games due to injury last season, he ranked third in the NHL in wins above replacement and goals above replacement, which are both cumulative statistics as opposed to averages.

That alone demonstrates MacKinnon's value, as the two players above him on those lists (McDavid and Matthew Tkachuk) played more games than he did. MacKinnon's rate of 1.56 points per game last season was bested by only two players - McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If MacKinnon can avoid missing more than 10 games due to injury this time around, he should garner serious Hart consideration.

4. Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk was brilliant in 2022-23. The Florida Panthers' tenacious talent deserved plenty of praise for his WAR and GAR figures, particularly in the context of this race because they factor in two-way play. He also buried 40 goals while ranking among the league leaders in points and several other categories. Voters rightfully recognized him for his efforts, as he finished third for the Hart before leading the Panthers all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.

However, the upcoming season is already looking more challenging for Tkachuk and his team. For one thing, key defensemen Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour are out to start the year with no definitive return dates. Tkachuk does have a prime opportunity to further prove his value by carrying the Panthers without those blue-liners. Doing so would bolster his MVP case if he and the club manage to excel in their absence.

But, on the other hand, Florida only made the playoffs by a single point in the spring, and the Cats need to make it again for Tkachuk to be a serious Hart candidate. If they slip out of the postseason picture with their integral rearguards missing time, it'll be much harder for MVP voters to consider Tkachuk. One could argue it's actually more impressive to thrive on a worse team, but that's not how Hart voters typically think.

Tkachuk has already proven he can provide the Panthers with significant value, but his team's fortunes - or misfortunes, as the case may be - could hinder his Hart chances, even if he matches or improves his statistical output.

3. Auston Matthews

Matthews wasn't in the thick of the Hart race last season because his typically eye-popping production and newfound defensive prowess diminished as he played through a hand injury. Assuming his health holds up in 2023-24, there's little reason to suspect the player who amassed 60 goals during his MVP campaign in 2021-22 can't pull off something similar again.

The 26-year-old enters this season with the added pressure of having signed a contract extension in August that'll make him the NHL's highest-paid player in 2024-25. However, Matthews' track record of posting arcade-like offensive numbers when healthy, along with his commendable two-way play, suggest he'll be firmly in the Hart discussion yet again. He'll also be playing on the penalty kill in 2023-24, which is a testament to his defensive growth and should only further cement his case.

Two of the Toronto Maple Leafs' divisional opponents - the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning - are expected to take steps back this season, even if they do still make the playoffs. Leading the Maple Leafs to a division title would also strengthen Matthews' case among voters who place importance on the success of a candidate's team (regular-season success, of course).

The Leafs have three other stars and some depth on the roster. But if their best player can separate himself from his teammates by a sizeable margin in terms of production while authoring strong underlying numbers, he'll be right back in the race he won outright two seasons ago.

2. David Pastrnak

Much like with the Panthers and Tkachuk, the Bruins' predicted slide in the standings could affect Pastrnak's MVP chances. However, the difference here is that Boston isn't likely in danger of missing the playoffs. The Bs won't ... be ... as good as they were in their historically dominant 2022-23 campaign, but that could actually help their game-breaking winger's Hart pursuit.

The Bruins are expected to tumble because Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Dmitry Orlov are all gone. Their depleted supporting cast means Pastrnak will need to do even more heavy lifting, which in turn will demonstrate his value to a greater degree - assuming he performs as he's shown he can.

Pastrnak amassed 34 more goals and 46 more points than his closest teammates last season, so just imagine what those disparities will look like in 2023-24 without those four departed impact players around. Pastrnak's playmaking abilities and even-strength dominance make that scenario quite plausible. It might even provide enough evidence for him to usurp McDavid as the front-runner (gasp), but Pastrnak has his work cut out for him in that regard.

1. Connor McDavid

Choosing anyone else for this spot would be foolish. There's no disputing that McDavid is the most valuable player in the NHL - generally speaking - so all he has to do is play like it to justify the honor. The Edmonton Oilers superstar certainly did that last season when he led all of the league's skaters in goals, assists, and points (a whopping 153) while besting all forwards in average ice time.

Expecting virtually any other player to duplicate that kind of success would be questionable, but no one will be surprised if McDavid equals - or even exceeds - the absurd numbers he posted in 2022-23. Sidney Crosby recently said he would never bet against McDavid when asked if his Oilers counterpart was capable of notching 170 points this season.

It's hard to disagree with the former best player in the world's assessment of the current one. And it's not just about counting stats, either, as McDavid's NHL-best WAR and GAR from a season ago further illustrate how valuable he is to his team.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)