Hart Trophy Rankings: Frequent runner-up zeroes in on hardware

The MVP race is really starting to solidify now that we're into the unofficial second half of the 2023-24 NHL season.

A quintet of superstars continues to dominate, but one game-breaker in particular appears dead set on finally winning the Hart after numerous near misses.

Meanwhile, Sam Reinhart has impressed while carrying the Florida Panthers, but our fifth-ranked candidate is still outproducing his teammates by a much wider margin than the ex-Buffalo Sabres forward.

Here are our top five MVP contenders with the All-Star break now firmly in the rearview mirror.

xGF% = Expected goals for percentage at five-on-five

5. Artemi Panarin

Reinhart has a case here: He's torn it up lately in terms of goal-scoring, and his underlying numbers are a bit better than those of Panarin. But the New York Rangers winger is still outpacing his teammates by eight goals, four assists, and 20 points (compared to Reinhart's 12, two, and 11, respectively).

It's not like Panarin has cooled off dramatically since our last edition on Jan. 5, either. He has seven goals and seven assists over 14 games in that span. The Russian has nine more even-strength goals than Reinhart on the season, and no one has required more power-play situations to score than the Cats standout, who leads the league by far with 21 tallies on the man advantage.

Panarin's analytics are nothing to sneeze at, either. In addition to his commendable xGF%, the Rangers have 56.9% of the scoring chances with him on the ice at five-on-five this season (53.99 xGF% and 55.6 SCF% since our last edition). The superior contenders each have better all-around figures (standings points above replacement, wins above replacement, and goals above replacement), but Panarin still warrants a spot on the fringes of the discussion.

4. David Pastrnak

Pastrnak is still consistently racking up big numbers, and more importantly, he's outgunning his Boston Bruins teammates by eight goals, 15 assists, and a whopping 27 points. The Czech catalyst is doing most of his damage at even strength, ranking third in the league in both goals and points in those situations on the season.

The well-dressed winger has favorable underlying numbers, both for the campaign as a whole and since we last evaluated this race. Those categories include xGF%, SCF%, SPAR, WAR, and GAR, and he ranks among the NHL's best dozen or so players in the latter three categories.

Pastrnak has also been one of the league's most potent players since our last edition, with 10 goals and 12 assists in 14 games. The Bruins' depth at every position might discourage some voters from considering Pastrnak a contender, but frankly, it shouldn't. The fact that he's been miles above that talented supporting cast only further bolsters his case to be in the mix.

3. Connor McDavid

It still feels weird that McDavid hasn't established himself as the clear Hart front-runner, seeing as how he's handily won this trophy three times. But his less-than-superhuman start, an injury, and the Edmonton Oilers' early struggles as a whole allowed two other players to overtake him in the MVP race.

To McDavid's credit (and to no one's surprise), he's done an admirable job of returning to his otherworldly form. It's no coincidence the Oilers just reeled off a 16-game win streak, as well. He ranks third in the NHL in points per game on the campaign, and he's among the league's absolute best in even-strength points, too, despite missing time with said injury.

McDavid has a 61.57 SCF% to match a similarly sublime xGF%. His SPAR, WAR, and GAR numbers are all elite as well, as he ranks seventh in the former and eighth in the two latter statistics league-wide. This illustrates how his two-way game has allowed him to get back into the Hart hunt as opposed to his offensive production alone.

2. Nikita Kucherov

Forget about Kucherov's less-than-enthusiastic display in the Skills Competition last weekend. The Tampa Bay Lightning winger has proven time and time again that he excels when it counts. He's leading the NHL in assists by one and points by two this season. Only our front-runner has more even-strength points on the campaign.

But it's not just about the production itself. Kucherov has a remarkable 33 more points than second-ranked Brayden Point (who's posting over a point per game in his own right) on the Lightning. The Russian also has eight more goals and 12 more assists than his closest teammates.

Kucherov - the 2018-19 MVP - has been a two-way force as well, sitting among the NHL's best in SPAR, WAR, and GAR this season. Back when he won this honor, he led the league with 87 assists and 128 points. There's still a way to go in 2023-24, but he's on pace to have the best campaign of his career in terms of both goals and points with 52 and 137, respectively, over 81 games.

The Bolts sit fifth in the Atlantic Division by points percentage, and it's entirely fair to wonder how far they'd fall without Kucherov putting them on his back. They'll depend on him even more now that Mikhail Sergachev's out indefinitely. Kucherov posted nearly two points per game in the 17 contests Sergachev missed before his latest injury.

1. Nathan MacKinnon

MacKinnon's Hart woes are well-documented, but as a reminder: He's a two-time second-place finisher, having narrowly lost to Taylor Hall in 2017-18 and then to Leon Draisaitl in 2019-20. MacKinnon earned the third-most votes in the abbreviated 2021 campaign and placed fifth last season. The Colorado Avalanche dynamo is consistently in the MVP conversation, but he has yet to actually win it.

Well, the Nova Scotian center is now putting himself in position to finally claim the hardware. MacKinnon leads the NHL in all three of the aforementioned two-way categories by wide margins. The league's even-strength points leader has also scored 78% of his goals (25) in those situations, trailing only Auston Matthews among all skaters in terms of his total.

MacKinnon continues to pursue only teammate Mikko Rantanen in average ice time among all NHL forwards (sitting behind him by four seconds), and he leads third-ranked Kucherov by over a full minute. MacKinnon trails Kucherov for the league lead by one assist and two points. He also has at least 18 more points than any other Avalanche skater.

Given his perennial candidacy and past disappointments in this regard, he's becoming the sentimental favorite. But the numbers more than back him up. If MacKinnon can maintain this level of both production and importance to his team, he should finally get his Susan Lucci moment.

(Analytics sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)