NHL Thursday player props: 3 shooters to back at home
Wednesday was a disappointing night for the shot props. William Nylander started the evening off on a strong note, but Jake DeBrusk hit the net only twice on seven attempts against the Blackhawks. He failed to put us in a winning position and compensate for a dud of a showing from Connor McDavid and the Oilers.
We're still sporting a solid 4-2 record with our props through the first couple days of the season. Let's try and build on that with three more plays for Thursday's card.
Jack Hughes over 3.5 shots
Hughes established himself as one of the best shot-generators in the league last season. He missed a handful of games but still managed to finish top five in shots on goal, ahead of superstars like Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk, and Mikko Rantanen.
I expect Hughes to produce massive volume again in 2023-24. Jesper Bratt will be riding shotgun with Hughes at even strength and on the power play, which is a big plus. They have fantastic chemistry, and Hughes' shot rate was higher with Bratt on his wing than Timo Meier, Dawson Mercer, and some of the other great alternatives the Devils have on the roster.
What I also love about Hughes is there's almost no scenario in which he'd share the ice with Meier, who generates insane volume and finished sixth in shots on goal last season.
They don't play together at even strength, and they've practiced on different power-play units. Although Tyler Toffoli is a strong scorer, he isn't nearly the volume hog that Meier is. Hughes playing on different units should leave extra opportunities on his plate.
Look for Hughes, who posted a 63% hit rate at home last season, to start with a bang against a middling Red Wings team.
Odds: -140 (playable to -150)
Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots
Those who've followed these articles over the last couple of years know Kaprizov is one of my favorite targets, especially at home. The star winger averaged 4.3 shots per game in Minnesota last season and hit in 59% of his games.
His road splits aren't nearly as compelling. Kaprizov managed only 3.2 shots per game and went over his shot total at a disappointing 32% clip.
Kaprizov finds himself in a nice spot at home to the Panthers in Game 1. While Florida is a strong team, it tends to play in a lot of high-event games. This should be a good environment for Kaprizov.
Perhaps more importantly, the Panthers are dealing with a lot of injuries on defense - Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour are sidelined.
Kaprizov is going to get all the ice he can handle against a watered-down defense. Expect him to take full advantage.
Odds: -132 (playable to -145)
Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots
Robertson slowed down a little bit come playoff time, but his home splits were once again extremely good last season. He registered at least four shots in 59% of his home games, compared to just 40% on the road.
The difference in shot volume was staggering. Robertson averaged a whopping 7.7 attempts per game in Dallas but just 5.9 on the road. Suffice it to say, it's a lot easier to get four pucks on net when attempting nearly eight shots per game.
Robertson finds himself in a cushy matchup Thursday. The Blues are nowhere close to as good defensively as they were a couple seasons ago and figure to be in tough to make the playoffs.
With big minutes against an exploitable defense, Robertson is in a prime spot to make noise.
Odds: -105 (playable to -125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.