Calder Trophy Rankings: A pair of Ducks takes flight

Assessing the rookie class in the early goings of the season can be tricky business.

Some dark horses in the Calder Trophy conversation are off to red-hot starts and have taken the spotlight away from a few favorites. Adam Fantilli and Logan Cooley are missing this time around, but we fully expect them to pop back up on these rankings again at some point. Cooley is tied with two other players on this list for the rookie points lead, but six of his eight have come on the power play.

As the headline suggests, two Ducks feature in this edition - but neither is Leo Carlsson. He's been spectacular, but Anaheim has been managing his workload, so he's only appeared in seven games.

With those caveats out of the way, let's get into it.

5. Matt Poitras, Bruins

With the Bruins down their top two centers due to the retirements of David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron, the reigning Presidents' Trophy winners were in need of some help down the middle. Enter Poitras, a 19-year-old Guelph Storm product who surprisingly made the Bruins out of camp. It doesn't seem like he'll be heading back to the OHL any time soon. To quote head coach Jim Montgomery, "he just belongs." A glowing review like that is significant given how good the Bruins have been.

Poitras has seen substantial time in the top six as he's quickly adhered to the Bruins' style of play. The 2022 second-round pick has the third-most goals out of all rookies and is tied for the second-highest point total while leading the class with 10 takeaways. Poitras has also posted strong underlying numbers, with the Bruins controlling 63.6% of the goals and 53.5% of the expected goals with him on the ice at five-on-five.

We'd like to see Poitras get more ice time to boost his Calder hopes - he's only eclipsed the 18-minute mark once in 12 games this season - but that should change as he continues adjusting to life in the NHL. Given the early returns, it's no wonder Boston opted to burn the first year of Poitras' entry-level contract to keep him around with the big club.

4. Bobby Brink, Flyers

Like Poitras, Brink has been an extremely pleasant surprise for his team.

Philadelphia's 2019 second-round pick is tied for the rookie points lead, and six of his points have come at even strength, good for the fifth most on the Flyers. Brink has also had three multi-point games, the most among all first-year players.

The 22-year-old is averaging the third-most ice time of all rookie forwards, and those minutes have been fruitful ones for the Flyers: Philadelphia has outscored opponents 12-8 with Brink on the ice at all strengths. For comparison, Philly has dictated less than 50% of the goals in all situations so far this season. It's unsurprising, then, that Brink ranks in the top three in both wins above replacement (0.5) and goals above replacement (3.5) on the Flyers.

There's great potential for even more firepower from Brink, too, given that he's on the Flyers' top power-play unit. The City of Brotherly Love owns the league's third-worst power play with a success rate of just 9.8%, but the team is bound to get going at some point, and Brink will be there to reap the benefits.

3. Lukas Dostal, Ducks

Dostal isn't the only rookie goaltender who's been turning heads so far this season - Joseph Woll has been great for the Maple Leafs - but man, has he been vital to the Ducks' surprising success.

The most convincing stat: The dude is 5-1-0. He's been in net for all but two of Anaheim's wins this season. In four of his outings (all victories), Dostal has been forced to make over 30 saves. There's a reason he was named the NHL's Rookie of the Month for October. He owns a sparkling .930 save percentage at even strength and an admirable .863 high-danger save percentage at all strengths while saving 3.02 goals above average and 5.98 goals above expected.

The 23-year-old is sharing the crease with John Gibson, but he's pushing the veteran for playing time, which will be a fascinating storyline if the newbie is able to keep it up. For now, Dostal's performance is a welcome sight for a team that allowed a league-worst 335 goals last season.

2. Connor Bedard, Blackhawks

Bedard hasn't immediately torched the league, but he's come as advertised with a sickeningly dangerous shot. He's still the favorite to win the Calder Trophy, though we've got him in the silver-medal position this time.

The 2023 first overall pick leads the rookie class in goals and is tied for the second-highest point total. Given how lethal his release is, Bedard rightfully hasn't been shy about shooting the puck in the early stages of his career: He paces the Blackhawks with 34 shots, seven clear of Ryan Donato in second place.

What's more, Bedard could have more goals. He scored his first NHL goal in his second game, but in the first five contests of his career, he was mired by a shooting percentage of 5%, converting just once on a whopping 20 shots. Bedard has since turned things around, though, with four goals in his last six games on 14 shots, good for a 28.6% shooting percentage. Yeah, he's starting to figure this whole NHL thing out.

Bedard has the most ice time of all rookie forwards as the Blackhawks' No. 1 center. To make his life harder, he gets a lot of attention from opposing teams, who are doing their damnedest to not get burned by the new kid on the block. So far, the 18-year-old is handling it all very well, including about a million interviews with the media.

1. Pavel Mintyukov, Ducks

Take one look at Mintyukov, and you'd think he's in his fifth NHL season, not his first. Seriously, the defenseman hasn't played a single game in the AHL and already looks like this? At only 19 years old? What's his secret?

The Ducks' 2022 10th overall pick has impressed with his poise and confidence, both with and without the puck. He already has a knack for discouraging and disrupting plays without taking penalties (he was sent to the sin bin for the first time in his career Sunday against the Vegas Golden Knights), and he has the speed to recover if he gets caught on a particular sequence. For those reasons, he's earned the trust of his coaching staff. Mintyukov is averaging the third-most ice time on the Ducks, he's been quarterbacking Anaheim's top power-play unit since his debut, and he's out there late in games to help the team defend leads or chase a goal.

Mintyukov is just catching fire, too. He's tied with two forwards for the rookie points lead, and seven of his points have come at even strength, good for the fourth most among all NHL defensemen. Even better for the Ducks, six of his points have come in the last six games, which were all victories.

Keep an eye on:

• Logan Cooley, Coyotes
• Adam Fantilli, Blue Jackets
• Ridly Greig, Senators
• Luke Hughes, Devils
• Matthew Knies, Maple Leafs
• Marco Rossi, Wild
• Joseph Woll, Maple Leafs

(Analytics source: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey)