NHL Friday best bets: Devils to outduel Sabres
Thursday was a great night on the ice. We won both of our best bets and two of three player props, giving us a 4-1 record for the day.
We'll look to keep the ball moving with a couple of plays for Friday's card.
Sabres (+165) @ Devils (-200)
The Devils started the season slowly - at least analytically - but everything appears to be trending in the right direction.
New Jersey ranks fourth in shot share at five-on-five and is a top-10 team in expected goals. The Devils are a tough squad to deal with at even strength, and, led by Hart Trophy candidate Jack Hughes, their power play is clicking at a historically good clip.
Their offense is difficult for any team, especially one with defensive issues. The Sabres have struggled at five-on-five this season, controlling just over 45% of the expected goals. That puts them in company with teams like the Blues and Islanders.
Buffalo's underwhelming expected goal share stems mostly from defensive issues. The club is giving up quite a few chances, which is translating to goals against. Only five teams have conceded goals at a higher rate during five-on-five play.
The Sabres have also struggled to stay out of the penalty box. They're averaging 6:15 per game shorthanded, ranking them 25th in the league.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that giving Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and Co. extra time and space to work with is a recipe for disaster.
New Jersey played very sloppy in its last game against the Capitals, throwing away a gettable two points with bad puck management. Head coach Lindy Ruff wasn't happy and let the team know it.
I'm expecting the Devils - who have edges at five-on-five and with their special teams - to come out with a much more determined showing and pick up a win inside 60 minutes.
Bet: Devils in regulation (-120)
Kings (-135) @ Coyotes (+115)
The Kings are a very good defensive team. They rank second in the league in expected goal suppression at five-on-five, allowing just 2.11 per 60 minutes.
But Los Angeles has still given up its share of goals due to poor goaltending. You expect that from a tandem of Cam Talbot and Phoenix Copley. However, you don't expect them to stop just 87% of shots faced - especially behind a team that takes the danger out of so many of them.
I think this is a good spot for some positive regression. Only the rebuilding Sharks have scored on a lesser percentage of their five-on-five shots than the Coyotes.
Arizona lacks finishing talent outside of a couple of big names up top, and veteran Jason Zucker's injury will only magnify that.
Conversely, the Coyotes should be able to hold their own without the puck. They're a top-10 team at limiting expected goals at full strength, and they don't take many penalties.
This isn't a spot where the Kings should pile up the goals at even strength, nor should they be able to rely on an abundance of power plays coming their way.
Despite how things played out last time the two sides met, there's plenty of reason to expect a tight, relatively low-scoring affair.
Bet: Under 6.5 goals (-110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.