While the 2023 Hockey Hall of Fame class wholly deserves its time in the limelight, we're going to momentarily shift our attention away from this year's inductees to focus on the future.
We've already analyzed who might get the call to the Hall next year, so to keep things fresh, let's have a look at which active players could be enshrined when they retire. A pair of locks recently called it quits in Patrice Bergeron and Joe Thornton, but a star-studded list of options remains.
Before we dive into it, it's important to note players are listed alphabetically by last name in their respective charts. The "Individual NHL awards" section includes the Conn Smythe but not the Mark Messier Leadership Award or King Clancy Memorial Trophy. All-Star and All-Rookie nominations were also left out of the tally.
Tier 1: First-ballot locks
The cream of the crop. Not up for debate. These players have been stars their entire careers and are shoo-ins when they're eligible.
As good as each of these players is, a trio stands above the rest. Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin - he's not being left off any list around here - aren't just three of the best players of their generation, but of all time. They've won it all, and hopefully, fate lets some combination of them get inducted together. Crosby being enshrined with his Penguins running mate - or his biggest "rival" - would make for one of the most memorable classes ever.
Elsewhere in Tier 1, we have a collection of players from the most dominant teams of the era. Kane is more accomplished in points and accolades than his Blackhawks captain, but Toews was a serial winner at his peak and owns an impeccable international resume, which is important to factor in when debating a player's candidacy.
The pair of Kings on the list won't get as much fanfare as some others here, but Kopitar has two Selke Trophies, two Cups, and well over 1,000 points. Doughty's stock fell when he failed to live up to his lucrative contract for a few seasons, but his trophy cabinet between Los Angeles and Team Canada should easily get him inducted.
The Lightning will likely send four players from their best era in franchise history to the Hall. Kucherov is perhaps the most underrated of the bunch, but his 1.14 points per game sits 19th all time, and his 1.12 rate in the playoffs is 15th. The resumes of Stamkos, Hedman, and Vasilevskiy speak for themselves.
Perhaps the most divisive players in this section are Karlsson and Perry. Karlsson's attracted plenty of criticism for his defensive game over the years, but he's one of nine defensemen to ever win the Norris three times. He also owns the 10th-highest points per game rate (0.83) all-time at his position, boosting his case. Perry, on the other hand, is mainly viewed as a depth pest at this stage of his career, but he was a top player in his prime and has won every team trophy there is.
Tier 2: Stars on track
Not quite established enough to waltz into the Grand Hall just yet. They're building strong cases and will likely get in at their current rates, but they don't have the games played or the hardware to be considered locks yet.
Each of these players has a long way to go in their respective careers - none are older than 28 - but could be Hall of Famers if they stay near their current rates for a few more years. MacKinnon is a lock for 1,000 career points within three more seasons and will likely contend for championships consistently as the face of the juggernaut Avalanche. He's also been top five in MVP voting four of the past six seasons.
Sticking with Colorado, Makar has a rock-solid case through only four-plus seasons. He became the fastest defenseman ever to hit 250 points and has a Calder, Norris, Conn Smythe, and Stanley Cup in the bank. His ride to the Hall of Fame is already in cruise control.
Draisaitl, Matthews, and Pastrnak are each cut from a similar cloth. All will likely be in the 500-goal, 1,000-point club by the time they hang up their skates, and they all own at least one major award. Adding a Stanley Cup to any of their resumes would put them over the top, even at their current ages.
Shesterkin is pushing 28 and doesn't even have 200 games played yet, but the future of goalies qualifying for the Hall of Fame is bound to get murky after the class of 2023. After years of being tough on netminders, the voting committee stirred up some controversy by inducting Tom Barrasso and Mike Vernon, who each won two Stanley Cups but own lifetime numbers that pale in comparison to most goalies in the modern era. Shesterkin's operating at a sterling career .923 clip so far with one Vezina, putting him in contention despite the relatively tiny sample size.
Tier 3: Veterans on the cusp
May be first ballot in a weaker class, but their cases will likely be debated for a long time.
Players here have been productive for a long time, and some were among the best at their positions for a good portion of their careers. However, the championships and awards are lacking relative to those in the higher tiers, making each individual's case complex. Production isn't always enough to achieve hockey's highest honor. Just ask Pierre Turgeon, who put up 1,327 points (34th all time) and just got the call this year despite retiring in 2007. This collection could be the next generation's equivalent of Rod Brind'Amour and Keith Tkachuk - players on the fringe for decades.
Backstrom may be eligible for induction sooner than expected due to injury. He sits top 50 all time in assists, with over 1,000 points and a Cup. He was never a first-team All-Star and was only a finalist for a major award once, finishing runner-up for the Calder in 2007-08. Playing second fiddle in Washington all those years may hurt his relevance in Hall of Fame conversations. Giroux, Kessel, Tavares, and Pavelski are all fringe candidates as well, with consistent - but not necessarily extraordinary - careers.
As mentioned with Shesterkin, the future of goalies in the Hall is a massive unknown. Bobrovsky has had a roller-coaster career, but he's one of only 22 goalies to have ever won multiple Vezinas. He's also closing in on 400 wins and has a lifetime .915 save percentage despite some down years. He just may sneak in one day.
Burns has had a much better career than many realize, sitting 15th in league history in points by a defenseman. He also has a Norris, and Randy Carlyle is the only player ever to win the award and not be inducted. Burns might not be a first-ballot candidate, but he has as good of a case for enshrinement as anyone in Tier 3. Josi is on track to finish his career with a similar argument, with one top defenseman honor to his name and four more full seasons on his contract to keep climbing the points list. Letang and Pietrangelo have the championships Josi and Burns are missing, but they've combined for a single Norris nomination through lengthy careers.
One of the more compelling cases in this section is Marchand's. He's among the likeliest of this tier to get in on the strength of an undeniably impressive back half to his career. The Bruins captain is under a point per game overall, but he exploded offensively in his seventh NHL season and has kept up the pace since with 649 points in 584 games dating back to 2015-16. He's been a first- or second-team All-Star four times at left wing over that span, has a Cup ring, plus gold medals at the world juniors, world championship, and World Cup. Just like his playing style, Marchand's Hall of Fame resume is sure to be controversial among fans.
Tier 4: Great starts
These players are the face of the league's next generation. This section is the most hypothetical of the bunch, but each individual has shown great potential to be a star for a portion of their respective careers. Our age cutoff of 25 axed Canucks star Elias Pettersson by a day. Statistics as of Nov. 13.
All of these players have a long way to go, but a path to the Hall of Fame is viable if they continue on their current trajectories. Dahlin, Heiskanen, and Quinn Hughes will all likely win a Norris one day, and their early offensive stats are certainly promising.
Scoring titles and MVPs look within reach for Jack Hughes already at 22 years old, and Robertson, the most productive of this bunch, was fourth in Hart Trophy voting last year aged 23. Tkachuk could benefit from a boost in points, but he's a rare power forward in today's game and is captain of a team on the rise. His case could strengthen significantly with a few more strong seasons under his belt.
