NHL Monday best bets: Panthers to claw past Blue Jackets
We have a small but fruitful four-game slate to begin the week. Let's take a look at a side and a total carrying value.
Blue Jackets (+190) @ Panthers (-230)
The Blue Jackets are a bad defensive team. Despite completely revamping their blue line in the offseason, they continue to give up shots and chances in bulk on a nightly basis.
Columbus ranks 27th in expected goal suppression at five-on-five and 29th in limiting shots. The club's metrics are also worse on the road than at home.
The Blue Jackets have allowed 2.90 expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play at home compared to a whopping 3.28 on the road. They can't slow anybody down, and that's a recipe for disaster when going up against the Panthers.
Florida has dealt with a ton of key injuries this season, with Sam Bennett, Aaron Ekblad, and Brandon Montour having played little to no hockey. Still, the team ranks sixth in expected goal generation across all situations.
Coming off a disappointing loss against the putrid Blackhawks, the Panthers will no doubt be chomping at the bit to redeem themselves against this exploitable Blue Jackets defense.
Florida may also catch a break between the pipes. Dating back to preseason play, Elvis Merzlikins has yet to start more than three consecutive games. We've seen him start three straight and then have a night off three times already.
Should that trend continue in this contest, we'd see Spencer Martin for the Jackets. He's performed very well in the season's early going but owns a career .889 save percentage through 42 NHL games. I'd expect him to come back to Earth sooner rather than later.
A date with the Panthers could be just what the doctor ordered to bring that regression to the forefront.
Bet: Panthers in regulation (-140)
Bruins (+115) @ Stars (-135)
This is a mouthwatering matchup between two of the best teams in the league. The Bruins and Stars have the firepower to score goals in bunches when needed, but they mostly win on the back of structured defense and fantastic goaltending.
The two sides met twice last season, and we saw next to no offense in those games. One was a 3-2 affair that needed overtime, while the other was an air-tight 3-1 contest that featured an empty-net goal.
Everything points to that kind of contest again this time around. Linus Ullmark started for the Bruins in their last game, and they lost. That should mean we see Jeremy Swayman, who ranks third in the league in goals saved above expected (GSAE) at plus-7.7 through just five starts.
Boston really doesn't give up much - at five-on-five or on the penalty kill - and Swayman has proven capable of slamming the door shut when called upon. I don't anticipate many Stars goals in this one.
On the flip side, Dallas is positioned nicely to keep Boston to a low number. The Stars have allowed just 2.15 expected goals per 60 at home this season, the second-best mark in the NHL.
The Bruins will have a tough time generating chances. When they do, the Stars can feel more than comfortable with Jake Oettinger cleaning up any mess made in front of him. The 24-year-old netminder ranks fourth in GSAE.
Both teams are very good defensively. Both play methodical, structured hockey. And both feature elite goaltending. This one should produce little offense.
Bet: Under 5.5 (-105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.