NHL weekly betting guide: Who most deserves their market valuation change?

Last week, we discussed the market movers - up and down - over the first quarter of the NHL season. The Oilers weren't on that list because there was a nightly expectation that a turnaround was imminent, and oddsmakers weren't about to give you a deal betting on Connor McDavid. Their overarching hypothesis was due to Edmonton's even-strength expected goal share (XG%), which is among the best in the NHL and was still among the best even when the Oilers weren't winning. Knowing that metric was in Edmonton's favor didn't make it any easier to lay the high moneyline prices during its current seven-game win streak.

Are there other under-the-radar teams - from both our "movin' up" and "fallin' down" lists - ripe for a turnaround?

With their market valuation change in parentheses, let's examine those clubs and explore their even-strength expected goal share and high-danger chance conversion rate to see if the market's love is warranted.

The Rangers, Bruins, and Canucks have seen the biggest valuation increase, but all have around a 50-50 expected goal share at even strength. The difference between New York and Boston versus Vancouver is that the Canucks weren't expected to be above average. The Rangers and Bruins could be ripe for a consistent fade as favorites.

The expectations for the Flyers were even lower than the Canucks. But with a 53% expected goal share, Philadelphia's rating bump is as warranted as the Panthers, who are third in the NHL in XG%. Those two and Arizona should be considered bet-on teams based on quality even-strength numbers. Florida's high-danger chance conversion rate is well above the league average of 12.7%. However, teams with more talent should be expected to convert at an above-average rate.

Other than their 4-7 moneyline record over a tough stretch of their schedule, souring on the Stars makes little sense. Of the other clubs that have seen their valuation drop, only the Penguins and Wild have played above average at even strength, with Minnesota seeing better results since a coaching change.

Be careful of the Lightning, Kraken, and Canadiens, as they're surviving on high-conversion rates to offset getting outplayed. At least Tampa can boast the scoring talent to keep its conversion rate up and have a future Hall of Famer returning in goal.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.