NHL weekly betting guide: Do holiday distractions lead to more scoring?

You've got some time off coming. Maybe you're traveling home, and maybe you haven't started, let alone finished, your Christmas shopping. Exactly how locked into your work are you this week?

Hockey players are human, and a three-day Christmas break is nearing as the first of two scheduled hiatuses. It'd be easy (and lazy) to say that games are more likely to be played looser with a holiday looming, but we should look at last year's over/under results before we frivolously make such a statement.

*Two games were postponed due to weather

It's a small sample size, but the closer teams got to last year's holiday, the more scoring went up. On the second-to-last night, two contests went over with 15 total goals in what were the teams' "getaway games." All told, the over went 9-4 in matchups where both clubs were on the way home for Christmas afterward.

Two teams played their final game against a team still having to go to work the next night. The Maple Leafs managed to avoid an upset to the Flyers 4-3, while the playoff-bound Kraken lost 6-5 to the Canucks. Two more overs.

If you want an even smaller sample size, you can check out the 2021 pre-holiday schedule, where the only two games that weren't canceled went over.

Going back to 2019, the 13 contests on the final night before the holiday went 8-5 to the over. Twenty-six teams played a "getaway game" that Monday, Dec. 23. Five other clubs (the Kraken didn't exist yet) got an early holiday by playing Dec. 21 or 22. Here's how they fared:

The over went 3-2 in those games, but more interestingly, the team with one foot out the door lost pretty convincingly.

It turns out there might be reason to believe that clubs play a looser game when they're thinking about Santa Claus. If they're facing a team that isn't 60 minutes from the weekend off, there's a potential competitive mismatch. So, when looking at the board below, there are 14 games on the final night before the break that might be worth a bet on the over, and four more the night before. However, beware the Canadiens, Flyers, Oilers, and Jets on Dec. 22 as they may have plans other than competing.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.