NHL Tuesday best bets: Senators to tighten up after coaching change
We have a massive 11-game slate ahead of us on Tuesday night. Let's take a look at my favorite ways to attack it as we look to build on a 4-1 start to the week between best bets and player props.
Avalanche (-250) @ Blackhawks (+210)
The Blackhawks are playing some truly miserable hockey right now. They have dropped four consecutive games, eight of the last 10, and controlled a league-low 38% of the expected goals share at five-on-five during that stretch.
They are consistently being outplayed by their opponents and don't have the talent to make up for that. The Blackhawks can't outscore their problems, nor can they bank on getting enough saves to mask them.
Things went from bad to worse a few games ago when Seth Jones suffered an injury. Although he is eligible to be activated from injured reserve at any point, there is still no official timetable for his return. That tells me it is very unlikely he will play against the Avalanche.
An already bad Blackhawks team would be in a world of trouble against the Avalanche at full health. Without Jones, the mountain will be that much harder to climb.
The Blackhawks have been outscored by 23 goals at five-on-five this season, yet Jones owns an even goal differential in that game state. He has played well for them.
I expect the Avalanche - who just lost the top spot in the Central Division - to completely overwhelm a thin Blackhawks defense with all of their firepower.
Eight of Chicago's last 10 losses have come by multiple goals. That trend should continue against one of the league's best teams.
Bet: Avalanche -1.5 (+100)
Senators (-120) @ Coyotes (+100)
Offense has not been an issue for the Senators this season. They rank 10th in goals per game, eighth in shots per game, and have no problem ramping things up when needed.
Their biggest concern has been at the other end of the rink. They make too many mistakes defensively, be it poor puck management in risky areas of the ice or blown assignments without the puck. The fact that D.J. Smith couldn't fix those problems is why he is no longer coaching the team.
Tightening the screws is going to be a big point of emphasis for interim coach Jacques Martin. He is a veteran coach who demands respect and will want to see a lot more structure and discipline from his players. I expect there to be a noticeable difference on the defensive side of things.
This is also a perfect matchup to slow things down and focus on playing a smarter, more responsible game. The Coyotes play a very low-event brand of hockey, and goals have been few and far between for them and their opponents in recent weeks.
The Coyotes have scored 1.99 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play in December. That is a bottom-five rate in the league. They have also conceded just 1.87 goals per 60 minutes, which is a top-five rate.
Put another way, the Coyotes are not scoring or allowing goals. They're playing slow, methodical hockey and banking on Connor Ingram to bring them home by keeping things locked down in goal - and it has worked for them.
Given the success the Coyotes have enjoyed playing this brand of hockey, there is no reason for them to open things up on Tuesday night. And, again, I expect the Senators to lean into a more conservative, responsible style under Martin - at least in the early going while they adjust to line changes and different schemes.
Bet: Under 6.5 (-110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.