NHL Thursday player props: Nylander to exploit struggling Sabres

Wednesday was a strong night on the ice as we won all three bets, including a pair of shot props.

Let's take a closer look at three of my favorites for Thursday's monster slate.

William Nylander: Over 3.5 shots

Nylander has been quiet of late when it comes to shot generation, finishing with three or fewer in four of his past six games.

It's no coincidence that Nylander struggled against playoff teams like the Rangers and Predators while getting the job done against weaker opponents in the Blue Jackets and Penguins.

The Sabres fit into the latter group. They've won just 13 of 33 games this season and have struggled mightily on the defensive side of things. They give up chances in bulk and tend to find themselves in high-event games more often than not.

That should create the perfect game environment for Nylander, who has torched the Sabres in the past. Nylander has faced the Sabres three times this calendar year, going over his total in all three while combining to pile up 17 shots on goal, nearly six per game.

Odds: -120 (playable to -140)

Rasmus Dahlin: Over 2.5 shots

Dahlin has gone over his shot total in 10 consecutive games. He has averaged four shots on goal per game during this stretch, so it's not as if he's just squeaking by. He is often getting the job done with room to spare.

With the Sabres struggling, and key forwards jumping in and out of the lineup due to injury, Dahlin has taken it upon himself to get more involved offensively. It's paying off for him; he has nine points and 40 shots over the last 10 games.

What I love about Dahlin is how much ice time he gets. He's playing well over 25 minutes per game right now and has logged fewer than 23 minutes only once during this hot streak. Even in games that aren't all that close, he is playing as much as possible to try and turn things around. That is very important in creating a strong floor and ceiling.

Playing a boatload of minutes in a high-paced matchup against a division rival, the game situation couldn't be much better for Dahlin to have success.

Look for the Sabres' star defenseman to extend his shooting streak to 11 games.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Carter Verhaeghe: Over 3.5 shots

Verhaeghe is a monster on home ice. He has averaged 8.1 shot attempts per game in Florida this season, which is drastically higher than he's managed on the road (6.2).

That has translated to more success. Verhaeghe has a 62% hit rate in Florida compared to only 44% when away from home.

Verhaeghe has predictably fared better against non-playoff sides and weaker defensive teams. Over the past 10 home games, he failed to get the job done against the Jets, Bruins, Hurricanes, and low-event Kraken.

His hits came against the Blackhawks, Blue Jackets, Oilers, Penguins, Stars, and Islanders. That's a batch consisting almost exclusively of teams outside the playoff picture as well as one of the worst shot-suppression sides in the Islanders.

The Blues' defensive metrics have seen a bit of a bump since the coaching change, but there is only so much their subpar defense can do. A road game against a high-end Panthers team is not a spot where they're likely to hold up, and Verhaeghe should be one of the prime beneficiaries.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.