NHL Thursday best bets: Trust Vancouver as road underdog
We bounced back in a big way Wednesday night, sweeping the board on our best bets to push our weekly record to 8-5 between props, sides, and totals.
Let's look at a couple of matchups where I see value Thursday night.
Canucks (+130) @ Stars (-150)
The Stars are in a rut. Things don't look too bad on the surface - they're 5-3-2 over the last 10 - but the picture isn't as bright when you look closer.
They've controlled only 45.94% of the expected goals at five-on-five and conceded more goals per 60 than all but the Blues in that time. Strong defense and goaltending are calling cards for the Stars, so to be lacking in both areas is not only uncommon but concerning.
Jake Oettinger, who's struggled, is now sidelined with an injury. That leaves Scott Wedgewood as the temporary No. 1. Although he owns a 7-2-1 record, Wedgewood has conceded well over three goals per game and grades out as a slight negative in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE). He probably won't steal games and mask all of Dallas' mistakes.
This is also a very tough matchup for the Stars. The Canucks are loaded with high-end finishers (Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller, etc.) who've helped the team shoot the lights out all season long. If Dallas plays leaky defense in front of a backup goaltender, the team will likely pay the price.
Although the Canucks have also seen a dip in their five-on-five play of late, Thatcher Demko is more than capable of masking their mistakes. He leads the league in GSAE by a healthy margin, shaving nearly five more goals off expectation than second-place Jeremy Swayman.
With a goaltending edge and a more in-form offense, I see value backing the Canucks as road underdogs.
Bet: Canucks (+130)
Coyotes (-150) @ Sharks (+130)
There was a time when the Sharks were playing respectable hockey and grinding out wins against quality sides. That time has passed.
San Jose now looks more like the team we saw back in October. The Sharks have dropped three in a row and six of 10 while posting some putrid metrics.
No team has allowed five-on-five shots or expected goals at a higher rate over the last 10 games. San Jose is back to spending most of its games on its heels, asking far too much from a mediocre goaltending tandem.
Led by Connor Ingram, the Coyotes have allowed next to nothing for quite some time. They play a very low-event brand of hockey, and Ingram has slammed the door shut whenever asked.
Only Filip Gustavsson, Connor Hellebuyck, Ilya Sorokin, and Juuse Saros have saved more goals above expected over the past month. Ingram will make it very difficult on a Sharks team that struggles to finish its chances at the best of times.
Offensively, it's worth noting that the Coyotes are one of the league's better teams at working the puck into the slot and scoring from high-danger areas. This young Sharks defense won't provide much resistance.
This game sets up nicely for the Coyotes to have success at both ends of the ice. Look for them to grind out a road win within 60 minutes.
Bet: Coyotes in regulation (+100)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.