NHL weekly betting guide: Trust numbers to take pressure off underdog bets

When betting on hockey and its randomness, rationalizing can result in placing a well-thought-out bet that loses since most games are decided by one goal in a league where 21.4% of the games go to overtime. But putting rationale on paper can also result in talking yourself out of an underdog that wins because it's tough to make a case for the worse team.

For example, we backed the Sharks to beat the Kings on Monday. But think about what went into pulling the trigger on San Jose. Los Angeles had to come into that game with a 2-10 record in its last 12 contests. We then needed an underdog payout of +300 to take the risk, even though the team had just won a game on Saturday. We'd never predict that result outright, but a "Yes/No" prediction is a binary result, worth "1" or "0," whereas a Sharks' win won "3" after risking "1".

There are other times where making a case on a big underdog isn't easy. Recent winning pups like the Blackhawks (+205) over the Islanders, the Canadiens (+185) over the Avalanche, and the Ducks (+312) over the Panthers, came out of nowhere. The only reason to have played on the underdog would be because the price was a little too high on the favorite. But those matchups didn't provide a favorite that was struggling mightily, and even if the moneyline was listed as valuable, it was hard to make a case.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.