NHL Saturday best bets: Hughes brothers rematch among 4 worthy matchups

Booking a marginal loss Thursday was the best-case scenario given that none of our five teams scored first. That can be an arduous watch. However, if you were on the other side, with five 1-0 leads, you'd also be annoyed if you only won three of those games. Welcome to hockey betting, where Chris Kreider can tap a goal home with his skate as long as he doesn't cock his foot back like David Beckham.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 6

Flames (-120) @ Flyers (+100)

The Flames can be found for our target moneyline price with some line shopping. But even at -120, Calgary is worth a bet in a game between two teams that appear to be headed in different directions. The Flyers have lost six of their last seven games and have the fourth-worst xG% in that time at 43% despite getting above-average goaltending from Carter Hart and Samuel Ersson.

The Flames have won six of eight despite Calgary generating below-average high-danger chances at even strength. If the Flyers continue to allow more high-danger chances than they create, the Flames should ride Jacob Markstrom - quietly second in the league in GSAx - to a road win.

Pick: Flames (-120)

Sabres (+150) @ Penguins (-175)

The Sabres and Penguins have picked up the pace since before the Christmas break, as only the Stars and Panthers have a better xG%. Pittsburgh's seen results, going 6-2 in its last eight games, but Buffalo's better play hasn't translated yet in that same span as the team is 3-3.

After taking a while to get back in the flow of things following a three-week absence, Tage Thompson's gone from four points in his first eight games to a stretch of eight in his last six.

Neither team has received standout goaltending this year, making this matchup more of a toss-up than the odds suggest. So, we'd much rather take the +150 than have to lay -175.

Pick: Sabres moneyline (+150)

Canucks (+100) @ Devils (-120)

I've downgraded the Devils without Dougie Hamilton and even more without Timo Meier. However, New Jersey has fared well without its biggest minutes-eating defenseman, winning five of its last six.

The Devils are on the second game of a back-to-back, which is accounted for in our target price. But they're expected to start Nico Daws, who's won both his starts since taking over the backup role.

We faded the Canucks on Thursday on the premise that their metrics are propped up by their success at home. That loss to the Blues was a high-event game, something you don't want to get into with the Devils. The Canucks found that out for themselves earlier this season when they lost to New Jersey 6-5 in Vancouver.

Pick: Devils (-120)

Wild (-125) @ Blue Jackets (+105)

Projecting how much to downgrade a team with a missing player is an inexact science. But in two of the three games without Kirill Kaprizov, the Wild generated just four high-danger chances at even strength. In the other, they converted just one of 13 high-danger chances. Minnesota lost all three, so maybe Kaprizov is worth more to the Wild's win probability than the market's accounted for.

Columbus is never a fun bet, but at least the team is expected to get Elvis Merzlikins - its best goaltending option - back after he missed some time with an illness. It's a nice landing spot at home against the Wild without their point-per-game scorer.

Pick: Blue Jackets (+105)

Sunday cheat sheet

With just four games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet on Sunday.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.