NHL Monday best bets: Back the Avalanche to roll over Bruins

In hockey betting, sometimes you're the goalpost stuck firmly on its mooring, and sometimes you're the player sliding hard into that goalpost, taking it directly in the midsection.

Those of us on the Blue Jackets on Saturday experienced a couple of those moments, metaphorically careening into the iron, heading for the inevitable, and there was nothing we could do about it - we were about to take a bad beat.

If there was any doubt the Wild would complete the comeback in overtime, Marc-Andre Fleury made it known that this would not be Columbus backers' night.

The Blue Jackets had the better expected goal share Saturday and won the high-danger chances battle 9-6 at even strength, so holding a Columbus ticket at a plus-money price was the right thing to do.

"Just keep making good bets," they say. It will all work out in the end.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 8

Stars (-140) @ Wild (+120)

The Wild are back on the fade list for Monday. The pricing above docks Minnesota 4% in general win probability without Kirill Kaprizov, but what if he's worth more than that?

We discussed the Wild's lack of high-danger chances Saturday, and despite the win, Minnesota didn't dispel that theory. After going 0-for-6 on their best opportunities at even strength against Columbus, they're 1-for-27 since Kaprizov got hurt. Minnesota was creating 9.4 HDC at even strength before their best player was injured. The team has surpassed six just once in four games without him.

Only the Kings allow fewer high-danger chances at even strength per game than the Stars, and Dallas is fourth in penalty kill. So the Wild aren't likely to go 2-for-4 on the powerplay as they did in Columbus to keep themselves alive for a late miracle.

The problem for the Stars is they're also without their best player. Whatever win probability they should be docked without Miro Heiskanen makes them a bad bet at their moneyline price. The Stars have played in some high-scoring games lately, but going on the road after losing three in a row, I expect them to buckle down and play an even more conservative game without their top puck-mover.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-125)

Bruins (+110) @ Avalanche (-130)

The short version of this handicap is that if you can ever get the Avalanche on the moneyline at better than -150 at home, you should probably take it.

Colorado will be without Bowen Byram. But with its depth on defense, that's no reason to knock its average team rating in a given game. Coming off a rare loss at home, when they gave up eight goals to the Panthers, the Avs should be buttoned up for another highly rated team from the East. The 8-4 score was somewhat misleading, as the game was tied 4-4 in the third period, and - if you hadn't noticed - the Panthers (leaders in xG% since Dec. 1) might be a wagon.

The Bruins are likely getting a ton of credit in the marketplace, having won five of six, but they haven't faced an upper-echelon team on the road since losing 5-1 to the Jets on Dec. 22. In fact, since then, the Bruins have been outchanced in high-danger situations at even strength in every game, and the best expected goal share they've posted in that situation is 50.77%, and often well below average. Regression for Boston could be on the way, and no one would be surprised if it were to happen in Denver, where the Avs are 16-5 this season (compared to 9-10 on the road).

Pick: Avalanche (-130)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.