NHL Thursday best bets: Road warriors the play in 13-game slate

The two grimiest plays on Tuesday's card cashed, as the Ducks won convincingly as big underdogs and the Coyotes pulled off an overtime victory over the Bruins. The normally defensively stout Kings coughed up a late 2-0 lead and cost us profitability among a half-dozen plays, but it goes to show that catching a couple of upsets can limit the damage on nights where you don't get the other results you hoped for.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 11

Kings (+120) @ Panthers (-140)

We can lament the Kings blowing what seemed like a sure win in Tampa, but even though a 2-0 lead seemed in line with how Los Angeles would execute a road win, the game wasn't as low-event as you might think. The Kings were outplayed at even strength with an expected goal share of 35%, allowing 16 high-danger chances to their eight. That's unbecoming of Todd McLellan's team, and I expect him to have his squad back on brand in Florida.

The Panthers beat us Tuesday in St. Louis, but looking at the advanced metrics from that matchup, I think I'd back the underdog again. Florida mustered only five even-strength high-danger chances (while allowing 10) but scored on two of them. With a 5-1 win, the Panthers didn't receive appropriate negative reinforcement for a lackluster contest, and in their first game back after a long trip, they might not have the same focus as the Kings, who likely beat them to South Florida on Tuesday night.

Pick: Kings (+120)

Maple Leafs (-130) @ Islanders (+110)

The Maple Leafs had their fun against the NHL's junior varsity team, beating the Sharks 11-2 over two games. Throw in their California sweep, and the Leafs are feeling good about themselves. That can be a tough mental space to go to Long Island with, especially with the Islanders' focus level after getting beat soundly by the Canucks.

New York circles this game on the calendar, and it should be another raucous night in the home barn. In their last meeting in Nassau, the Leafs salvaged a point in a game they were outplayed in, but the Isles won in overtime. I expect a similar imbalance in even-strength play and New York to take care of Toronto again.

Pick: Islanders (+110)

Kraken (-120) @ Capitals (+100)

It's been a disappointing season for Alex Ovechkin, and now the Capitals legend is likely to miss Thursday's game against the Kraken. So he joins an injury report that looks like the 2019 section on the Stanley Cup with Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, and, of course, Nicklas Backstrom. With all due respect to second-leading scorer Dylan Strome, Washington's already thin roster gets a visit from one of the hottest teams in hockey. Seattle was unfazed by its mini-break, as it cleaned out the Sabres, and is a good bet to do the same to the shallow Capitals.

Pick: Kraken (-120)

Bruins (-135) @ Golden Knights (+115)

The market hadn't been accurately pricing the Golden Knights during the absence of Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, and the top two goaltenders on their depth chart. Vegas hasn't had a game of better than 51% xG share at even strength, nor has it out-high-danger-chanced a team since mid-December.

At 3-8 in its last 11 contests, that's shown up in toss-up games with other good teams. After playing at elevation Wednesday night, Boston's waiting in Vegas coming off a loss to Arizona that likely didn't sit well. We expect Boston's best effort, and even if the Golden Knights do bring their best, with a thinner roster than usual, it might not be enough.

Pick: Bruins (-135)

Weekend cheat sheet

Here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet games over the weekend.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.