Backing Capitals as lone favorite among 4 bets for Thursday

It's an adage we occasionally encounter in the NFL when searching for valuable underdogs in a given week, only to see the chalk hold across the board: You can't win plus-money plays when there aren't any to be had.

That was the case Tuesday when all eight favorites won in the NHL. There hadn't been a night like that all season with that many games to have the chalk sweep. The Coyotes and Maple Leafs each took leads into the third period, but like any mediocre outfit (both 21-21 on the moneyline this season), you can imagine how well that went.

As a matter of policy, a bettor uninterested in laying big moneyline odds on a high-variance sport should remain undaunted, especially when the league is in the middle of the campaign's dog days.

Naturally, both Wednesday games went the way of the underdog. Go figure.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 18

Blues (-105) @ Capitals (-115)

Here are two more 21-21 teams on the moneyline going head-to-head in Washington. However, after making the case for the Blues as undervalued at home due to their location splits, only to have them lose winnable games during their recent homestand, we'll turn on them when they hit the road.

Charlie Lindgren is expected to start Thursday after shutting out the Ducks earlier in the week. He's quietly been one of the league's best goaltenders this season, boasting a 14.89 GSAx (sixth in the NHL).

The Capitals are also getting healthier, with Alex Ovechkin the remaining piece to get them back to a full roster. His status is up in the air for Thursday. Should Ovechkin suit up, we'll consider that a bonus in a game in which the team playing better isn't being rated that way after accounting for home-ice advantage.

Pick: Capitals (-115)

Stars (-135) @ Flyers (+115)

The Stars haven't traveled much lately, with just three single-game trips to Midwestern opponents since the Christmas break. They caught two of those teams at the right time - the Wild (without Kirill Kaprizov) and the Blackhawks (any time) - and lost the other (2-1 in St. Louis). That changes Thursday when Dallas starts an eastern road trip against the Flyers, winners of four straight, including a three-game road sweep.

The Stars have stayed afloat without No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen, but his absence should be tested more against Philly's forward depth, which the market hasn't accounted for enough. Also, with Scott Wedgewood still out, Jake Oettinger is starting his fourth game in eight days - a tough task for a goaltender who just came off the injured list himself.

Pick: Flyers (+115)

Avalanche (+125) @ Bruins (-145)

Fading Boston at home is no fun, but getting the Avalanche as a decent-sized underdog is too much to pass up. A loss in Montreal got the attention of Colorado's leadership, and the club hung seven goals on Ottawa the next night.

The Bruins lead the otherwise underwhelming Atlantic, and lingering respect from their historic 2022-23 regular season has them rated at the top of the league with Edmonton at, by my estimation, 20% better than an average team. That's too high for a club at around 50% in both expected goals share (xG%) and high-danger chance (HDC) share at even strength.

This is a rematch from when Boston played in Denver. The Avalanche were the much better team (14-8 HDC) but needed a shootout to win thanks to excellent goaltending from Jeremy Swayman. He could be as good again, but we'll risk it with the Avs at plus-money.

Pick: Avalanche (+125)

Wild (+120) @ Lightning (-140)

It'll be interesting to see how long a kick in the pants can last. The Wild got booted 6-0 by the Coyotes and vowed a response. They then beat the Islanders 5-0. Maybe that's a one-off, but Minnesota's January cold streak came with Kaprizov sidelined. He's back with two games under his belt. We're hoping the Wild can return to their previous level between when they fired John Hynes and before they lost Kaprizov, a stretch in which they ranked sixth in the NHL in xG% and HDC% at even strength.

Maybe Minnesota's urgency to get back in the playoff hunt will push it over the Lightning, who haven't played since Saturday. Having won all three games on their current homestand and underestimating the Wild's pride, Tampa Bay might be packed up early for its weekend road trip.

Pick: Wild (+120)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.