Backing Devils' thin roster vs. Vegas, Sharks as long shots
The Senators had one of the best games they played all season during Hockey Day in Canada only to suffer an overtime loss to the Jets. The Maple Leafs outshot the league-leading Canucks 46-21 but fell short in the third in Vancouver. South of the border, the Penguins coughed up a 2-0 lead in the third period in Vegas despite having a 62% expected goal share at even strength.
As it sometimes goes in betting, the results didn't fall in our favor despite sticking to the correct process. Luckily, we have a six-game slate Monday night to get back on track.
The cheat sheet
If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.
| GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|
| WPG@BOS | 44.8/55.2 | WPG +145/BOS -118 |
| VGK@NJD | 44.7/55.3 | VGK +146/NJD -119 |
| FLA@NSH | 52.3/47.7 | FLA +101/NSH +121 |
| PIT@ARI | 53.9/46.1 | PIT -112/ARI +138 |
| CHI@VAN | 25.1/74.9 | CHI +373/VAN -283 |
| SJS@LAK | 30.2/69.8 | SJS +282/LAK -221 |
Best bets for Jan. 22
Golden Knights (+105) @ Devils (-125)
By the letter of the law in our cheat sheet, there's no value in betting on either side in this matchup. However, to take you into the kitchen, my projected win probabilities for this game are to be taken with a pinch of salt.
When you remove one key player, you can make an educated guess about what that star means to a team's chances of winning. When you take more than one out, it gets dicier. When both teams are missing important parts, it's like making jambalaya without the meat and spices.
For Vegas, Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel, William Karlsson, and William Carrier are still out, and Logan Thompson is still holding it down without a viable backup. Meanwhile, the Devils have been trying to stay afloat without Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes, and Ondrej Palat. So, no one knows if one team has an unaccounted-for advantage.
The Golden Knights, though, are going on the road for the second time in 11 games. As a general rule, support players perform better at home than on the road. Therefore, Vegas is potentially overvalued in New Jersey as the Golden Knights come into the contest with a rating steadied by success at home.
Pick: Devils (-125)
Sharks (+300) @ Kings (-380)
We'll take a shot on a huge underdog over concern about the Kings. We didn't mention winning with Los Angeles on Saturday night because it's not nearly as cathartic as commiserating over losses, and the Kings' win over the Rangers wasn't all that inspiring.
L.A. avoided its 11th loss in 12 games, mercifully converting two of only five high-danger chances (HDC) at even strength while earning just one power play. Five HDCs and one power play isn't the recipe for winning in the NHL. So, we won't assume the Kings are back in good form, making -380 too expensive of a price to pay for a side that's just 8-13 on the moneyline at home this season.
This leaves the Sharks, valuable at +282 or longer. The best we can say about them is they won against the Ducks on Saturday. Six of San Jose's 10 previous victories have come from separate two-game winning streaks. So, given the Kings' struggles, we can take a chance with another long shot.
Pick: Sharks (+300)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.