NHL weekly betting guide: Market's risers, fallers at the All-Star break
We made it past the true midway point of the season weeks ago. But with just a handful of games remaining before NHL All-Star Weekend and the break that comes with it, let's take this dip in action to look at how the betting market feels about every team. For comparison, we did a similar exercise in early December.
Since moneylines are a function of win probability, each team's rating is based on how much better (plus) or worse (minus) it is than an average team on neutral ice. For example, if your favorite club flies to Sweden and is -150 (60% likely) to beat a league-average (zero) team like the Predators, the betting market has deemed your club 20% better than average.
Below is an estimation of how the betting market rates each team based on recent moneylines before factoring injuries to players who matter to its win probability.
NHL betting market power ratings
We included a team's preseason market rating - based on its regular season point total before the season started. Like a stock, every team has a valuation, so we also note how much the valuation has changed since before the campaign.
| TEAM | RATING (%) | PRESEASON (%) | NET GAIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers | +20 | +16 | Up 4% |
| Hurricanes | +17.5 | +17.5 | - |
| Devils | +17.5 | +17.5 | - |
| Bruins | +17.5 | +9.5 | Up 8% |
| Golden Knights | +15 | +12 | Up 3% |
| Panthers | +15 | +8 | Up 7% |
| Stars | +15 | +15 | - |
| Jets | +12.5 | 0 | Up 12.5% |
| Canucks | +10 | -2.5 | Up 12.5% |
| Rangers | +10 | +11.5 | Down 1.5% |
| Maple Leafs | +10 | +16.5 | Down 6.5% |
| Avalanche | +10 | +16.5 | Down 6.5% |
| Kings | +10 | +10 | - |
| Penguins | +10 | +6.7 | Up 2.3% |
| Lightning | +2.5 | +4.5 | Down 2% |
| Predators | 0 | -5 | Up 5% |
| Wild | 0 | +5.5 | Down 5.5% |
| Sabres | 0 | +1.2 | Down 1.2% |
| Islanders | -3 | +1.2 | Down 4.2% |
| Flames | -3 | +3 | Down 6% |
| Flyers | -5 | -17.5 | Up 12.5% |
| Kraken | -5 | +1.5 | Down 6.5% |
| Senators | -7.5 | 0 | Down 7.5% |
| Capitals | -10 | -7 | Down 3% |
| Coyotes | -12.5 | -16.5 | Down 4% |
| Blues | -15 | -7.5 | Down 7.5% |
| Red Wings | -15 | -6.5 | Down 8.5% |
| Blue Jackets | -25 | -20 | Down 5% |
| Blackhawks | -25 | -22.5 | Down 2.5% |
| Canadiens | -27.5 | -21 | Down 6.5% |
| Ducks | -32.5 | -26 | Down 6.5% |
| Sharks | -40 | -27 | Down 13% |
The Blackhawks (Connor Bedard), Devils (Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes), and Golden Knights (Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel, William Karlsson) have suffered injuries to key players, which drops their current rating between 5% and 10%. Their above rating - and any other team with a more recent significant injury - is based on their status when healthy.
Despite a rough start, the Oilers have always been rated as a top team. They've certainly verified that with a huge win streak.
The Canucks and Jets continue to be the league's pleasant surprises. However, the most interesting dichotomy is the Red Wings' rating drop considering they're contending for a playoff spot.
The Sharks were expected to struggle at the beginning of the season, but no one predicted them to be this bad. Despite starting the campaign at the bottom, their market rating has taken the biggest hit.
The cheat sheet
The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.
You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:
- True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
- True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
- True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%
I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.
When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
| DATE | GAME | WIN PROB. (%) | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 29 | NSH@OTT | 45.9/54.1 | NSH +139/OTT -113 |
| Jan. 30 | CBJ@STL | 42.1/57.9 | CBJ +162/STL -132 |
| SEA@SJS | 56.7/43.3 | SEA -126/SJS +154 | |
| Jan. 31 | OTT@DET | 49.8/50.2 | OTT +112/DET +110 |
| LAK@NSH | 52.2/47.8 | LAK +101/NSH +121 | |
| SJS@ANA | 38.4/61.6 | SJS +191/ANA -154 |
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.