NHL weekly betting guide: What is home-ice advantage worth?

Last week, we looked at how each NHL team was rated in the betting market, pointing out how their stock has gone up or down since before the season. The rating system is based on teams' value relative to a league-average team. For example, if two evenly-rated teams faced off on neutral ice, each team's win probability would be 50-50, and the odds would be -110/-110 after the sportsbook takes what's called the vigorish or "vig."

Of course, outside of the NHL's various attempts at international live exposure, there are rare instances where teams play in a neutral setting. As such, we have to build home-ice advantage into each game and have done so with a 4% shift in win probability toward the home side. Those same two hypothetical even teams would be more like 46-54 (rather than 50-50) in an NHL arena, +117/-117 before the vig, and something like +110/-130 after its application.

Should home-ice advantage still be worth 4%?

Here are the combined records on home ice for all NHL teams this season and their collective record in regulation:

Home teams are 3.85% above .500, but when you tighten it down to regulation results, it drops to 3.2% as home teams are 96-75 (56.1%) in overtime and the shootout.

This is a change from the 2022-23 season, where home teams were worse in overtime and shootouts than they were in regulation:

It might feel like a negligible change, but shifting home-ice advantage to 3.5% might result in more road teams showing up as valuable night-to-night.

Interestingly, three of the top five teams at the All-Star break were considerably better at home:

Meanwhile, three of the bottom five teams have struggled even more on the road than the average team:

The Maple Leafs, Kings, Flyers, and Devils are the only teams with a discernibly better record on the road than at home.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.