Will DeBrincat dominate his former team? 3 shot props for Wednesday

We have a small three-game slate ahead of us Wednesday on the eve of the All-Star break.

Let's take a look at three ways to attack it.

Brady Tkachuk: Over 3.5 shots

Tkachuk came through for us last time out, soaring past his over with an eight-shot performance. We're going right back to the well in a fantastic matchup versus the Red Wings.

Detroit has won its fair share of games lately but certainly not because of its defense. The Red Wings rank 30th in five-on-five shot suppression over the past 10 contests and have allowed at least 30 total shots in nine of them. Win or lose, their goaltenders are seeing a ton of rubber.

I fully expect that to be the case again here. Believe it or not, the Senators are first in five-on-five shot generation over the last 10. They're creating a lot of offense, and Tkachuk is at the forefront.

Nobody on the Senators has more shots or chances in that span, whether it be at five-on-five or on the power play.

Tkachuk has registered four shots or more in 65% of his games this season. Given the Red Wings' inability to limit shots of late, he's in a prime spot to get there again.

Odds: -145 (playable to -160)

Alex DeBrincat: Over 2.5 shots

DeBrincat has cooled off of late, going over his total in just three of the past 10 games. Even still, his season outputs remain very encouraging. He has recorded three shots or more in 57% of his games and a whopping 69% when playing in Detroit.

I expect his home success to continue Wednesday night against the Senators. He's back on the top line alongside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, which should lead to extra usage relative to what he has seen lately.

DeBrincat has also generated shots at a higher rate with Larkin than other centers like J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp, even though Larkin is much more of a shooting (and scoring) threat.

I expect DeBrincat to have some extra pep in his step squaring off against his former team. He has faced the Senators three times this season, going over his total in two of them.

He attempted six shots in the lone defeat, which is in line with his season average at home - where he has been so successful - and generally enough for DeBrincat to get the job done.

The Red Wings haven't played in a few days, and this is their last game before the break. Every point is needed in a heated playoff race, so expect the Red Wings to give their top players as much ice as they can handle.

Odds: +103 (playable to -125)

Adrian Kempe: Under 3.5 shots

This line is too high for me. Kempe is averaging 3.1 shots per game (3.0 on the road) and owns a 36% hit rate for the season.

He's not exactly on an upward trajectory, having averaged 2.6 shots over the last 10 games while falling short of his total in eight of them.

Yet Kempe's line still sits at 3.5 heading into a road contest against the stingy Predators. They have been one of the league's best defensive sides since the calendar flipped, ranking near the top in expected goals suppression while routinely playing in low-event games.

The Predators aren't going to give Kempe much room to breathe at five-on-five. While they aren't in fine form killing penalties, they don't take many of them.

Head coach Andrew Brunette is likely to go with the best-on-best mentality, which means Kempe should see plenty of the Ryan O'Reilly line and Roman Josi pairing. It may be sweaty, but the Predators are well-equipped to keep Kempe under this number.

Odds: -145 (playable to -160)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.