Point poised to continue home shooting success vs. Avalanche
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We had a disappointing 1-2 evening with our props Wednesday night. Brock Faber failed to find the scoresheet, while Joel Eriksson Ek played 24 minutes for a team that piled up 43 shots but fell one shot shy of giving us a winning night.
We'll look to get back on track with three player props for Thursday's massive card.
Brayden Point: Over 2.5 shots
Point has some of the most drastic home/road splits in the league. It's almost unfathomable how much of a difference we see in his outputs.
He averages 3.2 shots per game in Tampa Bay and is going over his total a whopping 72% of the time, but he's generating just 2.2 shots per game on the road, recording three shots or more only 38% of the time. That's a 34% difference in success rate.
Thankfully, Point is at home Thursday night against an Avalanche team that has been vulnerable defensively of late.
Over the last 10 games, the Avs rank 23rd in five-on-five shot suppression and 29th while killing penalties. They are giving up a lot of shot volume across all situations.
As a top-line player and key contributor on the No. 1 power-play unit, Point is in a prime position to take advantage of Colorado's shortcomings.
Odds: -114 (playable to -140)
David Pastrnak: Over 4.5 shots
Pastrnak let us down last time out, but the process was still strong. He piled up nine attempts and missed the net five times, falling one shot shy of the over as a result.
His home averages (5.2 shots on 9.7 attempts) are as good as it gets and make him a priority target almost every time. A game against the Kraken is not worth making an exception for.
They are giving up plenty of shot volume right now and recently conceded 37 shots to the Devils, 38 shots to the Flyers, 32 shots to the Blue Jackets, and 34 shots to the Blackhawks.
The Bruins have dropped back-to-back games at home and will no doubt be hungry to get back on track.
Win or lose, I expect them to rack up the shots in this game, and Pastrnak should be at the forefront of the action.
Odds: -118 (playable to -135)
Seth Jones: Under 2.5 shots
Jones' shot volume has predictably dipped this season, as he plays for a horrendous Blackhawks team that is dealing with a constant wave of injuries to its few players of worth.
He's generating only 2.3 shots per game and going over his total just 34% of the time. His success rate (26%) is actually lower at home, but that makes sense, as head coach Luke Richardson controls the matchups and has Jones spending more time trying to slow down the opposing team's best players.
The Penguins rank in the top half of the league in limiting five-on-five shots over the last 10 games and don't take many penalties.
Jones is likely to spend a lot of time in the defensive zone trying to slow down Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. That, coupled with little power-play time, will make it very difficult for Jones to record three shots.
Odds: -140 (playable to -160)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.