NHL weekend betting guide: Which goalies make a difference in the market?

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Those intrepid enough to bet on the Sharks on Tuesday night - at a theoretically valuable +350 moneyline, according to our cheat sheet - might have played the "blame the goaltender" game when, up 6-3 in the third period, Kaapo Kahkonen allowed three goals in three minutes and another in overtime for a 7-6 loss.

Maybe if San Jose went back to Magnus Chrona - a largely unknown 23-year-old who stopped 36 of 38 Stars shots three days earlier - the underdog would have cashed.

That argument grew thinner Thursday when Chrona also gave up seven goals on 33 shots in the Sharks' next game, adding to the mounting evidence that when it comes to handicapping, few teams have a goaltending discrepancy worth noting. Of course, we may have avoided this headache entirely had San Jose's best option, Mackenzie Blackwood, been available, and the odds for a Sharks win had not tipped over our threshold due to the market's (evidently warranted) mistrust of Kahkonen and Chrona.

Earlier this week, we looked at the skaters who make a difference in the betting market. Here, we'll turn our attention to netminders.

While the Sharks' low-budget approach lends itself to replacement-level goaltending, it wasn't long ago we discovered that the Predators and Rangers hadn't gotten the advantage they hoped for by paying Juuse Saros and Igor Shesterkin, respectively, $5 million per year. Since then, Saros has separated himself from backup Kevin Lankinen, and with it came an eight-game winning streak for Nashville. But whose crease has been worth watching on any given night to see which of their goaltenders is in?

We use goals saved above expected (GSAx) on a 60-minute basis to evaluate what to expect from each team, listing only those with a 0.2 goal differential between their two options.

Fifteen teams have gotten notably better performance from one goaltender than the other, and in the short term, we should care who starts on a given night. In some cases, it's not the player who was expected to shine before the season.

As always, past performance does not predict future results. Cam Talbot is the clear-cut No. 1 in Los Angeles, but David Rittich's good work in a small sample size has resulted in better metrics. Speaking of limited work, Connor Hellebuyck isn't on the list above because Laurent Brossoit has provided nearly identical play in less than a thousand minutes played. A similar situation exists between another Vezina contender, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Anthony Stolarz in Florida.

Lastly, the season-long numbers for the Maple Leafs' Ilya Samsonov would make him the team's second-best option by the letter of the chart's law, but since taking a mental break, he's had a second-half surge. Combined with Joseph Woll's return, Toronto has a suddenly solid tandem.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.